General Błazeusz tells EU lawmakers Russia cannot invade NATO but maintains Suwałki Gap hybrid threat

Closed-door hearing in Brussels

The European Parliament's Security and Defence subcommittee held an extraordinary closed-door meeting in Brussels on 1 October 2026 to analyze the security situation surrounding the Suwałki Gap. Polish Member of the European Parliament Michał Szczerba confirmed the classified session following initial reports from Polskie Radio. The hearing aimed to inform European lawmakers about territorial vulnerabilities along NATO's eastern frontier and the surrounding regional risks stemming from the Russian Federation and Belarus. Szczerba identified the briefing as Poland's contribution to broader negotiations regarding the multiannual financial framework of the European Union. Polish representatives argued that preserving defense and resilience allocations in the long-term EU budget remains necessary to withstand ongoing pressure along external borders.

Assessment of Russian military capability

Lieutenant General Piotr Błazeusz, the Polish military representative to the NATO and EU Military Committees, appeared before the committee to deliver the technical assessment. Speaking to reporters prior to the classified discussions, General Błazeusz explained that Ukrainian resistance continues to absorb the conventional operational capacity of the Russian armed forces. Consequently, the Russian military currently lacks the resources and capacity required to conduct a ground invasion against any member of the North Atlantic Alliance. However, Błazeusz noted that Moscow is steadily moving up an escalation ladder through coordinated hybrid operations conducted below the threshold of conventional warfare.

At this moment, thanks to Ukrainian forces, Russia is not able to launch any invasion against a NATO country. It is simply unable to.

Strategic significance of the Suwałki corridor

The Suwałki Gap runs along a 65-kilometre border strip between Poland and Lithuania, connecting the Baltic states with the rest of NATO territory. Szczerba stated that closing the corridor in a conflict scenario would sever Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from overland reinforcements, making European parliamentary awareness essential. General Błazeusz affirmed that the threat to the Suwałki corridor remains constant and recognized across institutions, while identifying adjacent regions such as the Brest Gate as additional strategic focal points.

The Suwałki Gap is 65 kilometres that are absolutely key from a security perspective, because potentially cutting off the Suwałki Gap means cutting off the Baltic states from NATO support, and we want to draw the attention of the entire European Parliament to this issue.

Division of responsibilities between NATO and the EU

Alliance defense plans include rapid adaptation mechanisms to respond if Russian actions escalate along border zones. General Błazeusz pointed to updated authorities granted to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, allowing the military commander to initiate protective deployments before member governments reach unanimous political decisions on collective defense activation. Addressing inter-institutional cooperation, the general stated that NATO retains primary responsibility for military deterrence and territorial defense, whereas the European Union holds authorities that the alliance lacks. The European Union can apply non-military pressure against Moscow through economic sanctions and coordinated informational measures.

The Union has tools of influence on the Russian Federation, other instruments of power, for example economic, informational, which it can use better than NATO.