NATO summit opens in Ankara as Europe takes on greater defense burden

A new burden-sharing model

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance is ending an era of "excessive dependence" of Europe on the United States. European allies and Canada now spend an average of about 4 percent of GDP on defense, he noted, and will invest an additional $258 billion in 2025–2026. The goal is to reach 5 percent by 2035. Rutte stressed that a stronger Europe means a stronger NATO, not a US withdrawal.

We are now creating an alliance that is sustainable, where the United States knows it is a fair deal. We are taking greater responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe.

US pressure and spending targets

Ahead of the summit, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned that countries failing to meet the new spending benchmarks (3.5 percent of GDP on defense and 1.5 percent on military-related goals) could see a reduction in American troop presence. President Donald Trump, who is attending the summit, has repeatedly voiced disappointment with allies, naming Italy, the UK, Germany, France and Spain, while singling out Poland as an exception. A German commentary in Handelsblatt argued that Europe's policy of appeasing Trump has failed and that NATO must be reformed to no longer depend on the moods of the US president.

Ukraine's limited expectations

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend a dinner hosted by Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan but will not speak at the summit or participate in the second day, reportedly to avoid provoking Trump. Kyiv's hopes are modest. Former defense minister Andrij Zahorodniuk said Ukrainians are not thinking much about the summit because previous ones did not change the battlefield. The one concrete ask: more Patriot missiles or a license to produce them.

Maybe there are hopes, not expectations, that President Zelensky will convince world leaders, especially President Trump, to do something about Patriot missiles. Without Patriots we don't know how to stop Russia's ballistic terror.

European NATO members are expected to pledge a total of €140 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2026–2027.

Poland's agenda: unity and a permanent US base

Poland's delegation, led by President Karol Nawrocki and including Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, will push for alliance unity, a permanent US military base on Polish soil, and a fuel pipeline network for allied forces in Central and Eastern Europe. Experts cautioned against a two-speed NATO, warning that only Russia would benefit from internal divisions.

Summit schedule and defense deals

The two-day gathering begins Tuesday with a welcome ceremony at 19:15 local time, followed by a NATO-Ukraine Council dinner and a North Atlantic Council dinner at defense minister level. The main session of heads of state and government is set for Wednesday at 11:15. Alongside the political talks, a defense industry forum is expected to yield contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.