28 countries agree Milwaukee framework to counter global steel overcapacity

Ministerial agreement in Milwaukee

On 30 September 2026, ministers from 28 market-oriented countries and regions endorsed a new framework to counter excess capacity in the global steel sector. The agreement was reached during a meeting of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC), convened alongside the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The forum includes the United States and Japan, but excludes China, which produces more than half of the world's steel, and India, the second-largest global producer. Participating governments agreed to refrain from granting subsidies that sustain unprofitable mills or finance unviable new construction. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who chaired the gathering, designated the consensus the Milwaukee framework.

If like-minded partners adopt similar policies, they can hold accountable those countries that are contributing to the problem of global overcapacity in steel.

Trade defense and origin tracking

The framework calls on member administrations to initiate anti-dumping investigations, countervailing duty probes, and comprehensive safeguard proceedings against low-priced imports. Participating nations will also apply trade remedies to steel derivatives originating from areas with surplus production capacity. To prevent the circumvention of established duties through third-party countries, member states agreed to expand information sharing across international supply chains. This mechanism includes collecting and exchanging data on the specific countries where raw steel was originally melted and poured. The 28 members issued a joint declaration identifying government intervention as the primary driver of persistent global market distortions.

Excess capacity is sustained by factors including government interventions that shield uneconomic capacity from market forces that would otherwise require its retirement, distorting trade and weakening market-based producers worldwide.

Rising global glut and tariff landscape

Projections compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicate that global steelmaking capacity exceeding worldwide demand will increase from 601 million tonnes in 2025 to 745 million tonnes. In the United States, trade barriers on foreign metals remain elevated. President Donald Trump established 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum upon returning to office, subsequently raising the rate to 50% to protect domestic production. When asked whether trade ministerial participants had aligned on matching U.S. tariff levels against Chinese products, Greer noted that each administration will pursue its own measures.

Every country will do what they think is appropriate.

Pressures on European steelmakers

European producers face contracting production and deteriorating export volumes. Figures from European steel association Eurofer show that raw steel production within the European Union dropped 3% to 126 million tonnes in 2025, falling an additional 1% across the first five months of 2026 before registering 1.1% growth in May. EU raw steel output remains well below the 155 million tonnes recorded in 2015. Overall European steel exports fell 20%, including a 29% drop in shipments to the United States in the first half of 2026 caused by 50% U.S. tariffs. Deliveries to Turkey, India, and China each dropped by at least 18%. While the European Union accounts for 14% of crude steel production, Asia generates nearly three-quarters of global output. Although Brussels introduced anti-dumping duties of up to 90% on targeted items such as Chinese steel cylinders, excess volume was diverted into third markets where European producers compete.