First post-split poll: Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus at 7.5%, PiS drops to 15.9% when new party is on the ballot

A new United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, fielded 24-25 July 2026, tests two electoral scenarios in the wake of the split inside Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party. The split followed Jarosław Kaczyński's ultimatum and the expulsion of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and several dozen MPs.

The ballot without Morawiecki's party

In a scenario where Morawiecki's association "Rozwój Plus" (listed in the poll as "Rozwój + Wy") does not run, Civic Coalition (KO) leads with 29.4%, good for an estimated 175 seats in the 460-seat Sejm. PiS places second at 21.5% (123 seats), followed by Confederation at 14.5% (76 seats) and Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) at 12% (59 seats). The Left enters parliament with 7.2% (27 seats). Polish People's Party (PSL) at 3.1%, Razem at 2%, and Poland 2050 at 0.6% all fall below the 5% threshold. Undecided voters stand at 9.7%. In this configuration, PiS and the two Confederation groupings hold a combined majority of 258 seats.

Adding Rozwój Plus to the ballot

When the poll offers Morawiecki's hypothetical formation as an option, Rozwój Plus captures 7.5% support, translating into 31 seats. Civic Coalition remains the largest force with 28.5% (174 seats, down one), while PiS plunges to 15.9% (88 seats, a loss of 35 mandates compared to the no-Rozwój-Plus scenario). Confederation drops to 13.5% (71 seats), KKP rises slightly to 12.3% (63 seats), and the Left reaches 7.8% (33 seats). PSL (3.3%), Razem (1.9%), and Poland 2050 (0.6%) remain outside parliament. Undecided voters fall to 8.7%.

What is most important, the split in PiS does not currently change the structure of support fundamentally. On 2-3 July the broadly defined right-wing bloc — PiS and both Confederations — had a combined 47.5% in IBRiS surveys. Today those same groupings together with Rozwój Plus hold 47.9%.

Where Morawiecki's voters come from

The drop in PiS support between the two scenarios, from 21.5% to 15.9%, accounts for a loss of roughly 5.6 percentage points, almost exactly matching the 7.5% Rozwój Plus picks up (with the small residual explained by shifts among other parties). Civic Coalition's support slips by only 0.9 percentage points when Rozwój Plus is added, indicating that Morawiecki's appeal is concentrated almost entirely among former PiS voters.

A separate IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita, also conducted 24-25 July, placed Rozwój Plus at 7.4% support. That survey pegged KO at 30.1%, PiS at 17.3%, Confederation at 12.3%, KKP at 10.9%, and the Left at 7.0%. Compared with early July, PiS had lost nearly 6 percentage points, while KO gained 1 point.

Parliamentary math and coalition options

In the scenario with Rozwój Plus, the combined right-wing bloc of PiS, Rozwój Plus, Confederation, and KKP controls 253 seats, a comfortable majority over the 231 needed. KO and the Left together hold 207 seats. Notably, the entry of Rozwój Plus opens a theoretical third path: a coalition of KO, the Left, and Morawiecki's new formation would reach 238 seats, above the majority line, though no political talks toward such an alignment have been reported.

Turnout and methodology

Turnout intention stands at 51.4% (39.7% "definitely yes" plus 11.7% "rather yes"), while 46.7% lean against voting (20.2% "rather no" plus 26.5% "definitely no") and 1.9% are unsure. The United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska used a mixed CATI-CAWI methodology on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. Seat projections rely on an approximation model by Professor Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University, with a typical margin of error of 3 to 5 mandates.