Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints choke oil flows as Saudi Aramco halts deliveries to Europe

Chokepoint controls and tanker attacks

The regional conflict that began in February 2026 between the United States, Israel, and Iran has restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. Iranian forces control Hormuz by charging tolls on merchant vessels while allowing Chinese and Indian ships through, and recently attacked a Togo-flagged tanker attempting an unauthorized passage. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations also confirmed that a projectile struck another commercial vessel, starting an onboard fire. In the Red Sea, Houthi rebels reinforced their coastal positions and seized a central island in Bab el-Mandeb to monitor traffic moving toward the Suez Canal. These chokepoint disruptions have removed 10 million barrels of crude oil per day from the global economy, raising tanker charter rates above $1 million daily and forcing container carriers onto alternative routes around Africa and South America.

Saudi export disruptions and European supply cuts

The disruption escalated when a drone strike launched from Iraq shut down the Saudi East-West pipeline, the primary overland conduit bypassing Hormuz to the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco subsequently informed at least two European refiners that scheduled October deliveries were cancelled, eliminating shipments to buyers that previously imported 577,000 barrels per day. Saudi engineers expect the pipeline to partially reopen within days and reach full capacity in six weeks. To maintain sales, Saudi Arabia prepared 60 million barrels for ship-to-ship transfers off the Omani port of Sohar. French President Emmanuel Macron initiated preparations for a Group of Seven energy summit to coordinate national reserves, while Italy sought an expanded naval mission in Bab el-Mandeb. Seeking a diplomatic reprieve, Riyadh sent an Omani-mediated two-week ceasefire proposal to Houthi rebels as United Nations agencies recorded 112,000 newly displaced people across Yemen.

Fuel price inflation and developing market unrest

With international crude prices surpassing $100 per barrel and refined diesel supplies falling, developing economies face acute fiscal pressure. In Syria, the government under Ahmed al Sharaa raised diesel prices by 40% on 13 September, marking the second price increase in nine days following the shutdown of the Baniyas refinery. A 50-litre tank now costs roughly 70% of the Syrian minimum wage, triggering 36 protests on 13 September alone according to ACLED data. Demonstrators blocked the northern M4 highway on Wednesday and demanded the resignation of Energy Minister Mohammed al Bashir. Similar fuel-driven protests also broke out in Indonesia, Guatemala, and the Philippines, where governments hold limited fiscal room with global public debt at 94% of GDP in 2025.

ACLED regional research manager Muaz Al Abdullah evaluated the domestic political pressure facing the Syrian government as economic hardship expanded.

could begin to question the ability of the new government to govern and address their needs

Global inflation and monetary tightening

Energy cost increases drove inflation upward across Western economies ahead of the 3 November midterm elections in the United States. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh raised benchmark interest rates despite public criticism from Donald Trump, prioritizing inflation control over lower borrowing costs. The move increased financing pressure on the $40 billion federal debt while lifting corporate and mortgage rates. In Europe, Spanish annual inflation reached 4.3%, its highest rate since 2023, as central banks evaluated further policy tightening. Global maritime supply chains faced additional strain as cargo carriers avoiding Middle Eastern waters encountered drought restrictions at the Panama Canal, prompting traffic onto hazardous passages through the Strait of Magellan and Cape Horn. Washington also approved an arms package providing 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia.