Le Pen holds dominant 34-35.5% lead in 2027 French presidential poll, Mélenchon closes in on second-round spot

Le Pen's sustained dominance

Marine Le Pen remains the clear frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, according to an Elabe poll conducted on 9 and 10 July among 1,503 people representative of the French population aged 8 and over, including 1,390 registered voters. She is credited with 34 to 35.5% of first-round voting intentions across all tested scenarios, a gain of three points since March 2026. This comes despite her 7 July appeal court conviction for misappropriation of public funds and complicity, a ruling she has appealed to the Court of Cassation, suspending the execution of her sentence.

The deputy for Pas-de-Calais would also win in every second-round configuration tested. Against Jean-Luc Mélenchon she takes 67.5% to 32.5%, while against Edouard Philippe the margin narrows to 52% versus 48%. Facing other potential rivals, she leads Gabriel Attal by 54% to 46%, Bruno Retailleau by 56% to 44%, and Raphaël Glucksmann by 58.5% to 41.5%.

Between 34% and 35.5% (depending on the configurations tested) of registered voters intending to go to the polls would vote for the National Rally candidate, up three points since March 2026.

The race for second place

The contest for the second spot in the runoff has tightened considerably. Edouard Philippe of Horizons is measured at 16.5% in a configuration without Gabriel Attal but where Raphaël Glucksmann and Marine Tondelier represent the left. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise follows closely at 16% in that same setup.

When Gabriel Attal enters the field as a Renaissance candidate, Philippe's support drops to 14%, and Mélenchon edges ahead at 14.5%, securing qualification for the second round in that scenario. With François Ruffin and François Hollande on the left instead of Glucksmann and Tondelier, Mélenchon reaches 15.5% against Attal's 15%, a half-point gap.

Mélenchon anchors the left

Across every first-round scenario tested, Mélenchon remains the highest-polling figure on the left, collecting between 14.5% and 16% of voting intentions. Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique places second on the left with 8 to 11%, followed by Green leader Marine Tondelier at 3.5 to 6%, Communist Fabien Roussel at 2 to 3%, and Lutte Ouvrière's Nathalie Arthaud at 1 to 2%.

Mélenchon, who announced his fourth presidential candidacy in May on TF1's evening news, has expressed confidence. On France 3, 5 July, he said he had "not the slightest doubt" he would defeat the National Rally candidate in a runoff. He continues to seek the backing of the Ecologists and the Communist Party.

I haven't the slightest doubt that I will win in the second round against the RN candidate.

Attal factor reshuffles the centre

The presence or absence of Gabriel Attal materially alters the dynamics on the centre and right. Without him, Edouard Philippe reaches 16.5% and comfortably holds second place. With Attal running, Philippe falls to 14%, while Attal himself attracts 13.5% in a field that includes Glucksmann and Tondelier on the left. In that configuration, Mélenchon is the primary beneficiary, moving to 14.5% and displacing Philippe from the runoff spot.

Socialist primary looms

On the institutional left, the Socialist Party membership voted on 10 July in favour of a closed primary, a setback for First Secretary Olivier Faure who had advocated an open primary including party sympathisers. Only two candidates have so far declared: Eure deputy Philippe Brun and Ségolène Royal. The primary's outcome will shape whether the broader left can coalesce behind a single candidate or fragments further ahead of the 18 April 2027 first round.