KO holds lead but PiS gains in latest CBOS poll, four parties would enter Sejm

Poll topline

The CBOS poll conducted between 8 and 10 June places Civic Coalition (KO) in first place with 28.5% of the vote, down 2.3 percentage points from May. Law and Justice (PiS) saw the biggest gain, rising 2.5 points to 22.1%. The gap between the two frontrunners narrowed to 6.4 points.

Other parliamentary parties

Confederation (Konfederacja) slipped 2.5 points to 12.8%, while the Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) of Grzegorz Braun gained 1.3 points to 9.4%. These four groupings would cross the 5% electoral threshold and claim seats in the Sejm.

In June, for the second month in a row, the share of people willing to vote but undecided has risen. Currently 14.5% of those intending to vote do not know whom they would vote for, an increase of 2.9 pp compared to May and 3.7 pp compared to April.

Below the line

Partia Razem (Together) reached 4%, up 1 point, while New Left (Nowa Lewica) fell to 3.9%, down 0.8 points. The Polish People’s Party (PSL) dropped to 1.5% and Poland 2050 inched up to 1.3%. None would enter parliament.

Survey methodology

The survey was conducted by CBOS using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI, 80%) and online interviews (CAWI, 20%) on a sample of 1,000 adult residents of Poland. Results were weighted by electoral behaviour. Declared turnout stood at 76.6%, unchanged from May.