Kerry seek to end Dublin hex in All-Ireland semi-final at Croke Park

Kerry are warm favourites to retain their All-Ireland title, but Dublin have dominated the modern rivalry, winning six of eight championship meetings since 2009. The 34th championship clash between the counties, and the first under the FRC's new rules, throws in at 4pm.

Kerry's knockout dominance

Since their extra-time semi-final loss to Armagh in 2024, Jack O'Connor's side have played eight knockout championship games, won all seven against Ulster opposition, and dismissed Armagh and Tyrone in this season's run. O'Connor could become the first Kerry manager since Mick O'Dwyer in 1986 to put two All-Irelands back-to-back.

Shane Murphy's kickout has been a weapon, winning 70% of their own restarts against Armagh and 84% against Tyrone. Scoring efficiencies climbed from 63% to 85% in those games, while David Clifford is in irresistible form and Paudie Clifford hit five points from play against Tyrone.

Dublin's bounce under Brennan

Ger Brennan's side conceded four goals to Louth six weeks ago but have since beaten Donegal and Galway, two of the top-four favourites. The Dubs attack will field five of the six forwards who started the 2023 final win over Kerry, though Paul Mannion is gone and defender Eoin Murchan is unlikely to feature.

A one-sided modern rivalry

Since the 2009 quarter-final, Dublin have won six of the eight championship meetings, with one drawn final in 2019. Kerry's sole success was the 2022 semi-final, settled by Seánie O'Shea's 55-metre free after 76 minutes.

They talk about football as if it was their own invention.

That line from O'Connor's 2007 book captured the Ulster edge, but his team has since dismissed the northern challenge. Dublin are a different story.

Key match-ups

Jason Foley is set to pick up Con O'Callaghan, who missed the 2022 semi-final and was below his best in the 2023 final. Tom O'Sullivan is an alternative if needed. At the other end, the Clifford brothers carry the scoring load, and David Clifford, according to Dublin coach Dean Rock, has been compared to Lionel Messi's World Cup 2022 carry-job.

There is a comparison with how Lionel Messi dragged a fairly average Argentina team to win the 2022 World Cup to what Clifford has been doing with Kerry this season.

Kerry name the same 15 that squeezed past Tyrone, meaning Seán O'Shea and Tom O'Sullivan may be held in reserve.