92% of Israelis say Iran won the war as Trump signs ceasefire, poll finds
A survey by Hebrew University and Agam Labs finds overwhelming Israeli rejection of the US-Iran ceasefire: 92% believe Iran emerged victorious and 86% hold a negative view of the outcome.
The deal and its backlash
On Wednesday the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that promised an immediate and permanent end to hostilities on all fronts, including a ceasefire in Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement, struck without Israel at the table, also commits Washington to lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets. In Jerusalem the mood flipped overnight from gratitude to shock. Posters thanking Donald Trump were pulled down, and David Horovitz, editor of the Times of Israel, captured the national mood with two words.
Katastrophale Kapitulation.
Inside the polling
The Hebrew University / Agam Labs survey of 3,644 citizens, weighted to mirror Israel's demography, paints a picture of deep disillusionment. Beyond the 92% who say Iran has won, 82.9% believe the military campaign weakened Israel's long-term security, and 87.8% say the country failed to achieve its military objectives or fulfilled only some of them. Just 8.2% would support renewed major action against Hezbollah, even at the cost of a clash with Trump. Faith in prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cratered: 72.5% do not believe him when he insists Israel has scored significant gains.
- Iran won
- 92 %
- Campaign weakened security
- 82.9 %
- Negative view of outcome
- 86 %
- Distrust Netanyahu claim
- 72.5 %
- Objectives unmet/partial
- 87.8 %
- Support renewed Lebanon war
- 8.2 %
Netanyahu's political freefall
Netanyahu, who for three decades warned the world of an Iranian nuclear threat, saw the 28 February offensive as a dream fulfilled. The German-language Neue Zürcher Zeitung reports that he lured Trump into the war with promises of a swift regime collapse. Now Israeli media label the outcome a catastrophic capitulation, and even Trump's vice-president took a swing at Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners.
You're a country of nine million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.
Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir replied with rhetoric that underscored the government's isolation.
For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn!
America's lonely war
Oona A. Hathaway, a Yale law professor, argued in The New York Times that the US failed because it tried to go it alone. The war was launched without UN Security Council authorisation, making it illegal under the UN Charter and radioactive for allies. France, Spain, Italy and Switzerland restricted airspace and bases; Britain allowed only defensive use of its facilities. Iran answered by illegally closing the Strait of Hormuz and firing drones and missiles at neighbours. Even after the ceasefire, Israel has continued to strike Lebanon, leading Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to reportedly close the strait once more over alleged violations.
- US and Israel launch joint offensive against Iran.
- Trump signs Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, including Lebanon ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief.
- Israel continues strikes in Lebanon; Iran's IRGC reportedly closes Strait of Hormuz over ceasefire violations.
Commentator Simon Tisdall wrote that Netanyahu will be remembered as "the man who put the Middle East to the sword" and that the prime minister's political obituary now reads like a criminal indictment. With autumn elections looming and the US-Israel special relationship poisoned, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history faces a career-ending debacle.
