Israel sets October 27 election as Netanyahu trails former military chief Eisenkot in polls

Election date confirmed

The Knesset announced on Sunday that Israel's parliamentary elections will take place on October 27, ending months of speculation about an earlier date. The current parliament will hold its last session on Friday, July 17, completing a full four-year term for the first time in decades. Israeli law requires the vote to be conducted by that date.

Political observers had suggested Netanyahu preferred a date distant from the October 7 anniversary. The 2023 Hamas attack killed around 1,200 people and triggered the Gaza war, which claimed tens of thousands more lives.

Netanyahu's coalition push

Netanyahu, 76, who has led Israeli governments for more than 18 years cumulatively, heads the right-wing Likud party and has declared his intention to run again.

I intend to establish a broad national government, not a right-wing, not a left-wing government that depends on Arab parties, but a broad national government.

The current government, one of Israel's most right-wing coalitions, has been racing to pass several bills before the Knesset dissolves. Seven legislative initiatives are on the agenda, each a high priority for one or more coalition partners.

Legislative blitz before recess

The most contentious bill involves exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The Supreme Court struck down the long-standing exemptions in 2024, and police have recently increased arrests of ultra-Orthodox men evading the draft. Netanyahu, reliant on ultra-Orthodox parties to stay in power, has repeatedly opposed mandatory service for this community.

The government is advancing laws against the army.

Thousands of Israelis have protested the draft exemption bill for months. In return for supporting it, ultra-Orthodox lawmakers are expected to back Likud-sponsored measures, including a broadcasting reform that critics say would impose political control over media and weaken news organisations' independence, and a proposal to restructure the attorney general's office. The reform would make the legal adviser's opinions non-binding for the government, a move seen as targeting current officeholder and Netanyahu critic Gali Baharav-Miara.

Eisenkot's surge in the polls

Recent polling shows Eisenkot's Jaschar party, a centrist force, gaining rapidly and even overtaking Likud in one survey. A Hebrew University of Jerusalem poll found that more than 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the Middle East war, and support for Netanyahu's premiership dropped from 40.5% in early March to 29.4% in June.

Public opinion has soured on the ceasefire that halted the war Israel and the US launched against Iran in late February, which led to a Tehran-Washington deal many Israelis view as unfavourable. Anger persists over the security failures of October 7, 2023, with a majority of Israelis holding Netanyahu responsible.

What lies ahead

The draft dispute, the ongoing corruption trial against Netanyahu (now in its fifth year), and the October 7 legacy are expected to dominate voter sentiment. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has emerged as Netanyahu's chief rival for the premiership.

Danny Elgarat, a relative of a murdered former Hamas hostage, also intends to run for the next Knesset.