A direct order ignored

On Sunday evening, US President Donald Trump told the news site Axios he would call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tell him not to strike back after Iran launched more than 20 ballistic missiles at Israel. "Both sides had their fun," Trump said. "Israel had its hit, and Iran had its hit. We don't need another one." The phone call happened, but Netanyahu did not comply. Within hours, the Israeli Air Force attacked what the military described as "strategic defence systems" inside Iran.

Trump reacted on Truth Social early Monday morning, writing that "Israel and Iran must immediately stop 'shooting'." The Iranian military soon declared its own operations concluded, saying it had delivered a "painful response" to Israel in support of Lebanon.

The spark in Beirut

The latest escalation began with Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in a suburb of Beirut. Israel said it was targeting "terrorist headquarters" after rocket fire from the Iran-backed militia. Hezbollah had rejected a renewed ceasefire framework agreed last Thursday between Israel and Lebanon, to which the militia was not a party. Iran then fired ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since a separate, fragile truce between the US and Iran took effect on 8 April.

“I'm going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to strike back.”

A fraying alliance

Trump's frustration with Netanyahu had been building for days. US media reported a furious phone call in which the president called the prime minister "crazy" and ungrateful. "You're totally crazy. Without me you'd be in prison," Trump reportedly said. The president later confirmed the reports but said he still valued Netanyahu.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump insisted he was in charge. "I make the decisions. I make all the decisions. He has nothing to decide here," he said of Netanyahu. The Israeli leader's defiance is a public humiliation for a president who projects strength and control.

“Trump is trying to stage himself as the decisive authority, but the conflict parties ultimately do what they think is right. For a president who wants to radiate strength and control, that is a problematic image.”

Competing political clocks

Both leaders face domestic pressure that shapes their actions. Netanyahu must hold an election by 27 October and is trailing in polls. Analysts say he believes continuing the war helps his political survival. Any hesitation toward Iran signals weakness to his electorate. Israel's broader war aims, including regime change in Tehran, go beyond what Washington now wants.

Trump, meanwhile, is under fire from his own MAGA base ahead of the midterms. Influencers accuse him of being dragged into a costly war by Netanyahu against US interests. The president told NBC he never guaranteed "no new wars" during his 2024 campaign, despite having promised exactly that. He defended the Iran conflict as not an "endless war" and said it would be over soon.

The Hormuz factor

Trump is pushing for a quick deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions and release blocked Iranian funds in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blockaded. He posted that negotiations for a peace solution would continue and should "move quickly," but the sea blockade would remain in place for now. The renewed fighting makes those talks harder.

What comes next

The Iranian regime stands to gain from driving a wedge between the US and Israel. Trump told the Financial Times that mutual attacks would not disrupt peace talks with Tehran. But with Netanyahu pursuing his own military objectives and Hezbollah still firing from Lebanon, the ceasefire brokered in April is effectively dead. The US president has no clear exit plan, and his leverage over his closest Middle Eastern ally is visibly shrinking.