Rubio tells Congress Iran may discuss nuclear deal as Tehran halts peace talks and moves to close Hormuz

A tale of two narratives

Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, offering a cautiously optimistic view of diplomatic progress with Iran. He claimed that Tehran had agreed to negotiate aspects of its nuclear program that it had refused to discuss even a month ago. "There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week - that for the first time, certainly in my memory, they have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear program that just a month ago they said they would not," Rubio told senators.

His testimony came the morning after Iran's state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran would stop exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries, pointing to Israel's military operations in Lebanon as a ceasefire violation. The Guardian reported that Iran was also moving to fully close the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-phase framework

Rubio outlined a two-phase approach to the discussions. The first phase would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and commit not to charge transiting ships a toll or fire on them. They must also agree to follow-on discussions about their nuclear program, where broader sanctions relief could be discussed. He was explicit that sanctions relief is tied to nuclear concessions, not the waterway's reopening alone.

Any sanctions relief is conditions-based, which means it has to be in return for the reason why those sanctions were put in place in the first place, which is their nuclear program.

Progress could come as soon as this week but also possibly next, he added.

The military picture

Rubio painted a picture of extensive degradation of Iran's conventional military capabilities. He suggested Iran's missile program had been "substantially degraded," its launcher capacity reduced, and its drone-building capability "eroded." He declared the Iranian navy destroyed. "There is no Iranian navy," he said. "It lies at the bottom of the ocean, and will soon, within a number of years, be prime fishing spots, because they'll turn into reefs."

These claims have been contested. The New York Times reported in May that Iran had retained roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile, though analysts noted the more significant damage may be to Iran's ability to replace them, with over 85% of Iran's ballistic missile, drone, and naval defense industrial base damaged or destroyed. Rubio conceded the regime still has "a lot of drones," calling them easy to make and a pervasive problem.

Leadership and the supreme leader

Rubio also addressed the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the supreme leader was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on 28 February. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since assuming office. Rubio claimed he was alive and increasingly engaged. "I think there are indications out there that he is increasingly engaging at some level," he said.

Domestic pressure on Congress

Lawmakers from both parties used the hearing to press for an end to the conflict, which began with strikes by the U.S. and Israel on February 28. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut voiced frustration on CBS' Face the Nation. "We just need this war done, no matter the terms at this point," he said, citing the impact of soaring gasoline prices on American consumers and businesses.

We just need this war done, no matter the terms at this point.

Republicans hope Trump can get the Strait of Hormuz reopened and gasoline prices down ahead of November elections that will decide whether the party retains its slim majorities in Congress. At the same time, Trump must contend with Iran hawks in his party who oppose any concessions to Tehran. The administration is also seeking congressional approval for a proposed 30% cut to the foreign affairs budget while requesting a 50% increase in military spending.

The path forward

Last month, the U.S. Senate voted to advance a war powers resolution that would end the Iran conflict. Rubio's testimony marked his first public appearance before Congress on the war, though he has briefed members behind closed doors. The hearings continue over two days, covering the State Department's budget request before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, House Foreign Affairs Committee, and House and Senate appropriations subcommittees.