Iran changes tactics against ships in Strait of Hormuz before US midterms

A new tactic set at the top of Iran's leadership

Iran has changed how it targets ships in the Strait of Hormuz, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters. Neither official would describe the new strategy in detail, but one said Tehran began using different offensive methods against vessels it considers to be breaking its transit restrictions in early October, about ten days before the reports. The change covers both the type and the pace of the attacks, and one of its aims is to influence the outcome of the US midterm elections. The decision was taken at the highest level of the Iranian leadership and coordinated across the whole governing system. One official said the goal is to thwart efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices.

Attacks on ships in the strait

Iran struck six commercial vessels in and around the waterway on Sunday, 11 October, according to UKMTO and European security sources cited by the Financial Times. Five of the ships were oil tankers and the sixth was a container ship, the British maritime security firm Vanguard reported. Two crew members of one of the tankers are missing, the Financial Times said, and the day's attacks were the most Iran has carried out on ships in a single day since the war began. On Monday, 12 October, Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed an attack on a supertanker, saying it caught fire after trying to pass without a transponder and ignoring warnings. On Tuesday evening, 13 October, UKMTO reported that a tanker and a container ship had been hit by unidentified projectiles. An Iranian insider also said that vessels breaking the restrictions are no longer safe even outside the Strait of Hormuz.

US counter-moves and the cost of the war

The United States says it stopped a ship on Sunday that had left Iran in defiance of its blockade of Iranian ports, though Reuters could not reach the vessel's owner and the claim cannot be verified. In the week of 5 October, a US military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said US forces intercepted a dhow carrying unarmed Iranian spies who were passing targets, including US warships, to the Revolutionary Guards. The official said the Revolutionary Guards began using such spies on small boats after US strikes destroyed much of Iran's radar capacity. In another incident, the US Navy ordered the crew of a civilian sailing boat used for surveillance to leave, then sank the boat without casualties.

Oil flows and fuel prices

The Financial Times, citing data from the shipping database firm Kpler, said only 2.9 million barrels passed through the strait on Sunday, against 15.5 million barrels a day of oil exports in September. Shipping companies that had been willing to sail the route despite the risk, because freight rates on longer routes were high, are avoiding it again. Between March and October, Iran hit 24 ships in total, according to the Financial Times. Shipping industry figures told Bloomberg that cargo flows through the waterway may be slowing after a recent recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports.

Midterms and what comes next

US President Donald Trump is weighing further steps against Iran, but Reuters reported earlier that he ruled out additional strikes before the 3 November vote. The conflict has become a central issue in the midterm campaign, where the elections will decide majorities in Congress and high fuel prices are troubling American voters. Focus reported that the conflict costs the United States around three billion dollars a month. The midterm elections take place on 3 November.