Trump claims Iran peace deal will be signed Sunday, but Tehran and events in Lebanon cloud the timeline

Conflicting timelines for a signature

President Trump and Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif both announced on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran is set to be signed on Sunday 14 June, a date that also marks Trump's 80th birthday. Trump wrote on Truth Social that “the deal is scheduled to be signed tomorrow” and added that the Strait of Hormuz would immediately be “OPEN TO ALL” once the agreement is in place. Sharif said the pact would be finalised within 24 hours and that Pakistan was preparing an electronic signing, with technical talks to follow next week.

Iran, however, poured cold water on the Sunday timetable. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the deal could be reached “in the coming days” but stressed that “it will not be signed tomorrow.” Iranian media reported that a Qatari delegation had arrived in Tehran on Sunday to “study the latest developments related to the diplomatic process,” while officials in the Islamic Republic insisted that expert and political reviews of the draft were still ongoing. Analysts suggested that Tehran does not want to hand Trump a victory on his birthday.

In due time, when things calm down, we will go in and retrieve that ‘nuclear dust’ buried deep under those magnificent granite mountains – and we will dilute and destroy it, whether in Iran or in the United States.

What the framework is supposed to contain

The parties have been negotiating since a shaky 8 April ceasefire, which followed the US-Israeli military strikes of 28 February. The framework, often described as a memorandum of understanding, would open a 60-day technical negotiation window. Key sticking points include the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of Iranian assets worth $24 billion, and the inclusion of a Lebanon ceasefire.

A 14-point draft leaked by Iran’s Mehr news agency on Friday included recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and the rapid release of the frozen funds. Trump contradicted that version, insisting the deal would lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme and the removal of highly enriched uranium from the country. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi countered with a proposal to dilute Iran’s 60%-enriched uranium stockpile below 5% inside Iran, a position far from Washington’s stated goal of total elimination.

As long as a comprehensive agreement has not been reached, no one can be certain that a common position has truly been found.

Lebanon becomes part of the package

Tehran has repeatedly conditioned its signature on a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Hezbollah entered the conflict on 2 March. A senior American official confirmed on Friday that Lebanon-related arrangements are now included in the draft under discussion, a concession from earlier US efforts to keep the two tracks separate. But on Sunday the Israeli military bombed Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut’s southern suburbs and ordered evacuations from around 30 villages in southern Lebanon, after two drones launched from Lebanese territory struck Israel.

Pressure on all sides

Trump faces growing domestic discontent with a war that is widely unpopular, with midterm elections and the co-hosted football World Cup looming in November. He is expected at next week’s G7 summit, where allies are likely to press him on the conflict. Iran, too, is under severe strain. Bernard Hourcade, an Iran specialist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, said the country was bombed and is enduring a deep economic and political crisis, with the protest movement that erupted in January still simmering. “Both sides want to get out of this ‘neither peace nor war’ deadlock,” he told RFI.

Iran is desperate to find a solution. Iran has been bombed, and the country is going through a severe economic and political crisis. So they want to get out of this situation and open a new direction – meaning a change of domestic policy.