Iran and US close in on nuclear deal as UAE reportedly funnels billions to Tehran to end attacks
On 12 June, Iran confirmed an agreement with Washington could be signed in days, hours after Reuters reported the UAE had secretly transferred over $3 billion to Tehran. The twin disclosures shift the focus to two remaining sticking points: the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium and whether billions in frozen assets will be unlocked.
Nuclear stockpile moved beyond reach
A US military operation to seize Iran’s nuclear materials, on the table in mid-May, was judged too risky and never launched. Since then, Tehran has heavily fortified hiding places for its enriched uranium, according to a French-language report. Iran confirmed on Friday evening, 12 June, that a deal with Washington could be signed “in the coming days,” but the uranium question remains a flashpoint. Washington wants stocks destroyed on site and removed from the country; Tehran prefers to dilute them across its territory.
I would fear that Iran would pretend that part of the highly enriched uranium is unrecoverable. We would not have full assurance that Iran could not access it again at some point in the future.
A secret cheque from the Emirates
Four sources told Reuters that the UAE agreed to release between $10 billion and $20 billion for Iran, with more than $3 billion already paid. The funds, whose origin remains unclear, were reportedly a response to Iranian attacks on Emirati soil, including a strike on the Fujairah port on 4 May. The secret arrangement would allow Tehran to present the money as compensation for war damage while pledging to halt strikes against the UAE. Abu Dhabi, for its part, is buying security and seeking to salvage Dubai’s reputation after Iranian missiles emptied hotels and drove expatriates away.
- Iran strikes Fujairah port in the UAE.
- US military operation to seize Iranian nuclear materials judged too risky; Iran begins reinforcing uranium stockpile concealment.
- Iran says deal could be signed in ‘coming days’; US and Tehran close to agreement; Switzerland offers Geneva as signing venue.
- Reuters reports secret UAE payment of $10–20bn to Iran, with over $3bn already transferred.
- Reports detail nuclear standoff and frozen-asset negotiations.
The US insists no funds will be released for Iran in exchange for a deal. Still, the payment appears to have broken a weeks-long logjam during which Tehran repeatedly denied any agreement was possible.
The $120bn frozen-asset question
Iran’s blocked assets abroad are estimated at between $100 billion and $120 billion, Etopia researcher Jonathan Piron told RFI. Some of that money is in untouchable investments, but several billion dollars of oil revenues sit in accounts in Qatar and elsewhere. Piron notes the sums matter enormously: a sub-$10 billion release would not offset the US naval counter-blockade, while anything above $10 or $12 billion could let Iran “reverse the impact” and regain serious financial muscle.
If it’s a small amount, it’s an interesting element for Iran but does not offset the naval blockade of recent weeks.
Nuclear unknowns near Isfahan
Piron also warned that no one has a clear picture of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The possibility that Tehran is concealing material in underground installations near Isfahan remains “at the heart of discussions.” A separate French-language report noted that removing and destroying all uranium would require extensive resources and time, deepening the uncertainty around any final accord.
