Trump declares Iran ceasefire over, threatens new strikes as both sides trade fire in the Gulf

Ceasefire collapses

The memorandum of understanding signed last month at Versailles was meant to halt hostilities, but neither side ever stopped firing. In the past few days, Iran struck three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US hit around 80 targets inside Iran, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed strikes on 85 US-affiliated sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. On Wednesday, President Trump declared the deal dead.

That's a very interesting question. To me, I think it's over. I don't wanna deal with them anymore. They're scum, you know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people. And they're vicious, violent people.

Trump's shifting tone

Just two weeks ago, at the Great American State Fair, Trump had proclaimed 'peace in the Middle East' for the first time in 3,000 years. Last month he described Iranian leaders as 'very rational,' 'strong,' and 'smart.' The MOU was widely seen as a rushed 14-paragraph document that skirted core disputes, including Iran's nuclear and missile programs.

For the first time in 3,000 years, we are going to have peace in the Middle East.

Escalation threats at NATO summit

Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, Trump threatened major new combat operations, including seizing an Iranian oil processing island and striking infrastructure and desalination plants. Experts warned that attacking desalination facilities could constitute a war crime. Trump said he was most hesitant to hit those plants and did not anticipate a return to full-scale war.

Iran's strategic calculus

Analysts argue that Iran, not Washington, is now dictating the conflict's tempo. Tehran appears willing to absorb damage while inflicting costs on Gulf states, pursuing regime survival, control of the Strait, and preservation of its nuclear program. The Trump administration, by contrast, entered the war without a clear strategy, relying on assumptions that the Iranian regime would quickly collapse.

Domestic and electoral pressures

With midterm elections less than four months away, Republican allies fear the economic and political fallout of a prolonged conflict. Trump could reimpose the naval blockade of Iranian ports, but his earlier attempt did not trigger the economic collapse he predicted. The president faces a narrow set of options, none of them appealing.