Poland's May inflation confirmed at 3.1%, far below forecasts, as vegetable prices plunge
Poland's consumer price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in May, missing the 3.7% consensus forecast, after a monthly drop in vegetable costs pulled food prices lower, the statistics office confirmed on Monday.
Inflation surprise
Poland's annual CPI inflation came in at 3.1% in May 2026, down from 3.2% in April, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The reading was well below the 3.7% expected by economists and matched an earlier flash estimate. Month-on-month, consumer prices fell 0.3%.
As usual in May, the ‘culprit’ behind the sharp drop in food prices was vegetables, most likely new spring produce. Organised tourism also chipped in.
Vegetable price collapse
The steepest price declines were in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which slid 1.0% on the month. Vegetables alone tumbled 7.8% from April, a monthly drop seen only in May 2014 and 2002, according to PKO BP analysts. Meat and fats also recorded marked falls. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, remained around 3.0% year-on-year.
Category breakdown
While overall inflation moderated, several categories continued to climb year-on-year. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 5.0%, transport and recreation each gained 5.6%, health services increased 5.1%, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco were 6.4% higher. Restaurants and accommodation were up 4.5%. Clothing and footwear, by contrast, fell 3.4% year-on-year.
- Housing & energy
- 5 %
- Transport
- 5.6 %
- Health
- 5.1 %
- Alcohol & tobacco
- 6.4 %
- Restaurants & hotels
- 4.5 %
- Clothing & footwear
- -3.4 %
Fuel and energy dynamics
Fuel prices rose 12.3% from a year earlier but edged down 0.1% on the month. Electricity and gas prices held steady. PKO BP economists noted that fuel prices have fallen about 7% so far in June, but a planned excise-duty restoration on 16 June will add roughly 4–5%. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also signalled a return to the standard VAT rate on fuel during the summer, a move that could lift final pump prices by about 14%.
Outlook and risks
Analysts expect inflation to stabilise near current levels in coming months, possibly even drifting slightly lower. The resumption of the standard excise rate on 16 June may add at most 0.2 percentage points, offset by ongoing declines in global oil prices. A later VAT hike would have a larger impact but is not yet in the baseline forecast. Geopolitical developments remain the main upside risk, though near-term fears have eased.
After the return to the higher VAT rate on fuel, inflation may temporarily rise above 3.5% year-on-year, but the risk of it staying above that level is low.
