IMF chief warns AI could affect 40% of jobs worldwide, calling it a slow-moving tsunami
Kristalina Georgieva said in Bangkok on 12 October that AI investment is keeping world growth near 3% while threatening labour markets, tax revenues and education. The IMF publishes an updated forecast on 13 October.
Investment props up growth
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told a panel at the Bangkok meetings on 12 October that spending on AI infrastructure is keeping world growth at about 3%, even as the economy absorbs a shock from disrupted energy supplies. She said the investment boom is already producing a demand shock and an investment shock. She estimated that it could lift growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point and in emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 points. The IMF projected global growth of 3% for 2026 in July, and it will publish an updated forecast on Tuesday, 13 October. Georgieva said the main production hubs of the AI supply chain are the United States, China and India, but many companies building the necessary infrastructure operate in Asia, including Thailand, which hosts this year's meetings.
A slow-moving tsunami for jobs
Georgieva described AI as a 'slow-moving tsunami' that will change labour markets, education and the way governments raise taxes. The IMF estimates that about 40% of jobs worldwide will be changed by AI, through support for workers, downgrading of skills or elimination. That figure is not the share of jobs that will be lost. In advanced economies the share reaches 60%, while in lower-income economies, where AI is still a distant prospect, it is 23%.
- Global jobs
- 40 %
- Advanced economies
- 60 %
- Lower-income economies
- 23 %
Preliminary IMF research found that 10% of positions in the United States already require AI-related skills. Routine, repetitive tasks are declining while low-paid jobs in construction and data centres are growing. Georgieva said AI will reduce demand for workers on routine tasks while lifting hiring in construction, a sector that usually pays less.
Entry-level workers and tax bases
Young workers are the most exposed, since they usually start in routine tasks before moving up their careers. Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that it is becoming harder to find a first job after university. World Bank chief Ajay Banga was not convinced that entry-level posts will disappear en masse, pointing instead to simpler AI uses in agriculture and education. Georgieva also warned that economic gains could shift from workers, who form the core of the tax base, to owners of capital, reducing state revenues. The IMF calls for tax systems to be prepared and for investment in training to limit inequality. Workers who can use AI may become more productive, while those without access to training will find it harder.
Finance ministers stay away from Bangkok
About 18,000 people are expected at the meetings, including finance officials from the IMF's 191 member states. Several finance ministers will not attend, preferring to focus on domestic priorities. Among them are US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spanish Finance Minister Arcadi España. Finance ministers from Canada, India and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will also be absent, according to a source familiar with attendance plans. The Congolese government is trying to control an Ebola outbreak that has killed at least 4,000 people. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, who chairs the IMF's steering committee, still intends to attend, despite the suspension of operations at Riyadh airport after deadly attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen, backed by Iran, in the weekend of 10 and 11 October, two sources said.
What comes next
The IMF's updated forecast on Tuesday, 13 October, will show whether the AI investment boom changes its 3% estimate for 2026. The meetings in Bangkok run for one week.
