Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks reach wartime peak as Iran threatens southern transit routes

Record tanker attacks and transit disruptions

Hostile actions against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly level since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February 2026. Maritime security sources recorded at least 12 attacks on tankers transporting crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) between 28 September and 5 October. The United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) registered nine incidents over the same period, surpassing its previous weekly peak of eight incidents on 13 July. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), overseen by the US Navy, reported that Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces engaged in drone overflights, vessel tracking, VHF radio harassment, and direct strikes. In one encounter confirmed on 6 October by India's Ministry of External Affairs, a projectile struck the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace, injuring 12 crew members. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) identified nine attacks in the corridor during the first week of October alone.

Iran appears intent on exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz through fear and uncertainty. Iran does not need to stop all ships; it only needs the shipping industry to believe that any ship could be next.

Iranian threats to close southern bypass routes

Iranian officials announced plans to shut down alternate navigation corridors along the coast of Oman that vessels use to bypass primary transit lanes. Mohammadreza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told the Fars news agency that these southern routes had been cleared by blasting rocky passages to facilitate illicit transfers to tankers. Naghdi rejected assertions that Gulf maritime crude shipments were returning to normal operations. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor Majid Mirahmadi reported that daily vessel transits through the strait have fallen to an average of 10 ships, compared to 125 ships per day prior to the war. Most active tankers operate in the corridor near Oman with their automatic identification systems deactivated to obscure their locations.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran's legitimate demands are met.

Regional escalation and Houthi strikes

Security risks broadened across the Arabian Peninsula as Houthi forces launched attacks on infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia. The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation reported strikes targeting airports in the cities of Jazan and Najran. A Saudi-led coalition intercepted and destroyed a separate Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Khamis Mushait. In response, the Saudi-backed government of Yemen announced an extensive military campaign against Houthi forces. To maintain export flows around maritime chokepoints, Saudi Arabia raised throughput on its East-West pipeline to 5.8 million barrels per day on 6 October, according to Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Few expected that a near-total shutdown of the world's most critical energy artery would last this long, or that the ramifications would be so wide.

Energy market volatility and inventory strain

Energy markets responded to the transport disruptions with price increases across crude and natural gas contracts. Brent crude futures for December delivery traded at 101.52 dollars per barrel on the morning of 7 October, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery reached 90.16 dollars per barrel. European natural gas prices approached 76 euros per megawatt-hour, reflecting the vulnerability of regional supplies where outbound LNG flows remain more than 75% below pre-war volumes. QatarEnergy extended a force majeure declaration on LNG deliveries to Italian utility Edison through December. Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed to release emergency crude and diesel reserves across a four-month timeframe, though Saudi Aramco noted that global oil reserves have decreased from 10 billion barrels before the war to approximately 6 billion barrels.