US escorts 7 million bpd through Hormuz, Wright says, as Venezuelan crude flows rise

US military operations restore oil flow

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced Friday that roughly 7 million barrels per day of crude and fuel products are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz with US naval escorts. That amount restores about half of the flow that was choked off since the US and Israel began attacking Iran in late February, he said at the Bloomberg Energy Security Executive Briefing in Houston.

We have a military effort that we've not talked a lot about, which started more recently to get cargoes out.

The escorted volumes are rising, and Wright pledged the strait would be fully reopened with or without Iran's cooperation. No Iranian crude is currently leaving the strait, he added.

The pre-war oil gap

Before the war, around 20 million barrels a day moved through the Arabian Gulf via the strait. Wright said about 5 million barrels have been diverted to pipelines and other transport, and global production outside the region rose by roughly 1 million barrels, leaving a gap of about 14 million barrels. The International Energy Agency had estimated Gulf supply was down by the same amount, or 14% of world output, though some analysts think the shortfall may be closer to 5–6 million barrels as shipments find alternative paths.

Kpler, a commodity data firm, tracked 136 million barrels of non-Iranian crude moving through the strait and Gulf of Oman between early April and June 10, or about 1.9 million bpd. Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said total volumes including pending loadings could top 100 million barrels, broadly matching President Trump's claim of a "secret mission" that moved over 100 million barrels and 200 ships.

Market reaction and skepticism

Oil prices are hovering around $88 a barrel. CIBC senior energy trader Rebecca Babin noted that market pricing suggests investors had priced in only 3–4 million bpd flowing through Hormuz, far less than the 7 million now reported. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth struck a cautious note, saying his company's estimates put actual volumes lower, and warned against assuming a quick US-Iran deal.

Iran has a long history as a patient and unyielding negotiating partner. Headlines should be trusted only when a deal is signed and concrete steps follow.

Wright left open the possibility of a US gasoline tax holiday this summer to help reduce fuel costs and said some sanctions on Iran could be partially lifted if a deal is reached.

Venezuelan crude flowing to US refiners

Separately, Wright said US refineries can absorb more Venezuelan crude as the South American nation's output rebounds following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January. Venezuela is now exporting about half of its total 1.25 million bpd to the US, with the rest going to India and Europe. The country's oil ministry forecasts output of 1.37 million bpd by year-end, a 22% rise from 1.12 million bpd in late 2025.

You don't just flip on a switch, but you'll see more and more Venezuelan crude demanded by U.S. refineries.

US crude production rose 3% last year to a record 13.6 million bpd, and Wright expects further gains from offshore Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, on top of modest shale growth.