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Today’s Brief

Hormuz tolls and Bastille armour

Trump strains Hormuz as Europe rearms and US politics loses a sanctions hawk

The serious news clustered around force and its price. Washington and Tehran traded blows around the Gulf, Europe put military solidarity on parade in Paris, and political shocks in Washington and Madrid complicated already fragile coalitions.

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World · Updated 1h ago

Important

The Middle East after Gaza

The direct military escalation between the US and Iran, including fresh US strikes and Iran's declaration of the Strait of Hormuz closure, represents a fundamental shift in the regional security posture.

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Conflicts·1h ago

Trump scraps 20% Hormuz fee in favour of Gulf trade deals as US strikes hit Iran's nuclear port city

Hours after a third wave of US airstrikes hit targets near Iran's sole nuclear plant and its oldest refinery, President Trump abandoned a planned 20 percent levy on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with bilateral investment agreements with Gulf states.

A sudden reversal on transit fees

On Monday President Donald Trump announced a 20 percent charge on the cargo value of all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to recover the cost of American military protection. By Tuesday afternoon he had scrapped the idea entirely, posting on Truth Social that after conversations with Middle Eastern leaders he would substitute that levy with “trade and investment agreements that various Gulf states will conclude with the USA.” The New York Times noted that Vice-President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had publicly opposed any toll on international waterways for months.

Such fees would violate international law.

— Marco Rubio

The reversal came on the same day that US Central Command began enforcing a full blockade of ships bound for or departing Iranian ports, a measure Trump said was a response to Iranian attacks on merchant vessels in the strait. Enforcement was to start at 22:00 Polish time on Tuesday.

Oil is flowing like never before thanks to the extraordinary might of the United States Armed Forces. The Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL ships except Iran — because of its lying, brutal and vicious leadership, which is driving that country to TOTAL DESTRUCTION.

— Donald Trump

Strikes spread along the Persian Gulf coast

Iraqi state media and Reuters reported explosions just after 10:30 a.m. Warsaw time (8:30 GMT) on Tuesday. Vice-Governor Ehsan Dżahanian of Bushehr province told the IRNA agency that four sites in the city of Bushehr were struck by enemy missiles, pointing to the United States. Bushehr hosts Iran's only nuclear power station, but it was not confirmed whether the plant itself was hit. American forces also struck facilities in Abadan, site of the Middle East's oldest oil refinery, and in the petrochemical port of Mahshahr, according to Khuzestan Vice-Governor Waliollah Hadżati.

The overnight and morning attacks followed a weekend seizure of two ships by Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said the US strikes were ordered to deprive Tehran of the ability to target commercial shipping, hitting dozens of military installations. Iran responded by declaring the strait closed until further notice.

Escalation in the Gulf, 12–14 July 2026
  1. Jul 12, 2026Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy seizes two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing them of illegal navigation.
  2. Jul 13, 12:00 PMCENTCOM announces US airstrikes aimed at degrading Iran's ability to attack merchant shipping.
  3. Jul 13, 07:00 PMTrump declares a 20 percent levy on all cargo transiting Hormuz and announces a blockade of Iranian port traffic.
  4. Jul 14, 01:00 AMOvernight US strikes continue for a third consecutive night; Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed.
  5. Jul 14, 08:30 AMFour sites in Bushehr are hit at 8:30 GMT; explosions also reported in Bandar Abbas, Abadan and Mahshahr.
  6. Jul 14, 02:00 PMTrump announces the 20 percent fee is replaced by trade and investment agreements with Gulf states.
  7. Jul 14, 08:00 PMEnforcement of the US blockade of Iranian ports begins at 22:00 Polish time.

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Tehran threatens a second chokepoint

With the Hormuz already disputed, Iran signalled through its Houthi allies that it could throttle the Bab al-Mandab strait, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Reuters quoted senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Farah warning that an operational alliance would close both waterways if the situation deteriorated, pushing oil prices to $200 per barrel. Professor Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics said Iran was ready to “go all out” to confront Washington.

Iran is ready to go all out — to show the Americans that it can threaten two strategic chokepoints at once and turn this war from a bilateral conflict into a challenge for global energy trade.

— Fawaz Gerges

The Bab al-Mandab carries roughly 30 percent of global container traffic, 10 percent of all seaborne goods and 8–10 percent of oil and gas, according to The Economist. Saudi Arabia, the world's third-largest producer after the US and Russia, ships much of its crude through the narrow passage. Houthi forces had already demonstrated the ability to almost completely blockade the strait after the Gaza conflict ignited in late 2023, forcing carriers to reroute around Africa.

Bab al-Mandab share of global maritime traffic · %
Container traffic
30
Total seaborne goods
10
Oil and gas
9
Container traffic
30 %
Total seaborne goods
10 %
Oil and gas
9 %

Iran insists oil exports will continue

Despite the US blockade, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknedjad said the ministry had preserved all mechanisms developed over years to circumvent American sanctions. During the 60-day suspension of restrictions that preceded the current escalation, Iran exported at least 57 million barrels of crude, according to Bloomberg, maintaining a daily rate of at least 2.2 million barrels.

Since the structures needed to sustain Iranian oil exports have been preserved, exports will continue as before and we will have no problems in this regard.

— Mohsen Paknedjad

Iran's parliament also began work on a bill for permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, state media reported. The legislation would give Tehran legal cover for the permanent inspection of traffic through the waterway that carried 20 percent of global oil and gas exports before the war.

Bandar Abbas · Bushehr · Abadan · Washington
Donald TrumpJ.D. VanceMarco RubioMohsen PaknedjadMohammed al-FarahFawaz GergesAndreas KriegEhsan DżahanianWaliollah HadżatiAli al-Zaidi
Donald TrumpWashington, D.C.JD VanceWashingtonMarco RubioBandar AbbasBushehrFawaz GergesAbadanAndreas KriegMohsen PaknedżadEhsan DżahanianMohammed al-FarahWaliollah HadżatiMohsen PaknedjadAli Falih Al-Zaidi

8 sources

  • Nie będzie opłat w cieśninie Ormuz. Trump ma inne rozwiązanie
    TVN24·2h ago
  • Odwet za blokadę portów? Iran może zamknąć inną cieśninę
    www.money.pl·3h ago
  • Reuters: Iran sygnalizuje, że gotów jest zamknąć cieśninę Bab al-Mandab
    wnp.pl·4h ago
  • Trump rezygnuje z myta w Ormuzie. Ma nowy pomysł
    www.money.pl·5h ago
  • USA: Trump: umowy handlowe zastąpią opłaty za przepływanie przez Ormuz
    wnp.pl·5h ago
  • Trwa wymiana ciosów pomiędzy USA i Iranem. Eksplozje w okolicy elektrowni atomowej w Buszehr
    wnp.pl·9h ago
  • Iran: Media: nad Zatoką Perską słychać eksplozje po atakach USA
    wnp.pl·9h ago
  • Iran niewzruszony. "Nie będziemy mieli żadnych problemów w tym zakresie"
    TVN24·9h ago

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