Extreme heat costs Italy up to €12 billion a year, Confesercenti warns
A new study by business association Confesercenti estimates that 30–60 days of intense heat per year drains between €6 billion and €12 billion from the Italian economy, equal to 0.2–0.4% of GDP, through higher energy bills, lost productivity, and forced investments.
The price tag
On 18 July 2026, Confesercenti, the Italian association of small and medium enterprises in commerce, tourism and services, published an analysis by its economic office on the economic impact of extreme heat. The study estimates that living with 30 to 60 days of intense heat per year costs the Italian economy between 6 and 12 billion euros annually, equal to 0.2–0.4% of GDP. The figure aggregates higher energy costs, lower labour productivity, mandatory investments in cooling and building upgrades, and lost revenue in the most exposed sectors. The warning coincides with a heatwave gripping the country: the health ministry had already extended its maximum red alert (bollino rosso) to 16 cities on 17 July, the highest level in the national warning system.
Where the money goes
The largest single item is forced investment in more efficient air conditioning, solar panels, shading and building energy retrofits, which Confesercenti puts at 2 to 4 billion euros. Higher energy bills for prolonged cooling add another 2 to 3 billion. The drop in labour productivity on extremely hot days is estimated at 1.5 to 3 billion euros: above a stable 35°C, the report notes, error rates rise, sick leave increases and the capacity for physical work declines. Finally, 1 to 2 billion euros in turnover is lost in construction, agriculture, logistics and street vending.
- Forced investments (2–4 bn)
- 3 billion €
- Higher energy costs (2–3 bn)
- 2.5 billion €
- Productivity loss (1.5–3 bn)
- 2.25 billion €
- Lost revenue (1–2 bn)
- 1.5 billion €
Households and small businesses
For a typical family, summer cooling already costs about 150 euros on average, a figure that could climb to 400 euros within a few years, according to the report. On top of that come the purchase and replacement of air conditioners, higher water consumption and health expenses linked to heat stress. The burden falls disproportionately on lower and middle incomes and the elderly, Confesercenti warns. Small firms face a parallel squeeze: a bar or shop that now spends 3,000 euros a year on cooling could soon be paying 5,000 to 6,000 euros, plus the capital outlay for more efficient equipment and building upgrades, which the association calls a genuine capital barrier for micro-enterprises.
Shifting consumption and tourism
The heat is also reshaping spending patterns. Demand for heavy winter clothing is weakening as cold seasons shorten. In restaurants, outdoor seating loses appeal on the hottest days, pushing customers indoors. Tourism flows are migrating toward June and September, with mountain destinations gaining interest while art cities become less attractive during peak heat periods.
Call for structural action
Confesercenti president Nico Gronchi described extreme heat as a structural economic variable that affects investment, productivity, spending and even tourism habits.
Extreme heat has become a real climate tax, a structural economic variable. It affects investment, productivity, spending and consumption habits, including tourism.
He argued that the challenge cannot be met by leaving the problem to individual households and businesses, and called for structural interventions: thermal renovation of buildings, urban regeneration and investments in city resilience.
This is a challenge that cannot be won by leaving the problem to the initiative of individual families and businesses. Structural interventions are needed.
