Macro · Athens

Greece primary surplus hits €3.65bn, triple the target, as VAT boosts revenues

Greece's central government primary surplus more than tripled its target in the first five months of 2026, reaching €3.65bn against a €1.24bn goal, as value‑added tax receipts climbed to €12.34bn, partly reflecting elevated consumer prices.

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In brief

Athens · Greece

Surplus more than triples target

The Ministry of National Economy and Finance reported a primary surplus of €3.65bn for the January–May 2026 period, far above the official target of €1.24bn. On a modified cash basis, the balance of the central government budget showed a surplus of €103m, compared to a planned deficit of €2.18bn. The same period in 2025 yielded a primary surplus of €5.34bn. Net revenues reached €30.22bn, outperforming the target by €2.53bn, largely due to the early collection of the seventh Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) tranche of €884m in April and higher than programmed public investment revenues.

VAT lifts tax intake to €28bn

Total tax revenues amounted to €28.03bn, or €27.59bn stripping out one‑off items from the Egnatia concession (€306m) and a casino licence payment in Elliniko (€135m). The adjusted figure still exceeds the target by €171m, or 0.6%. Value‑added tax collections were the main engine, bringing in €12.34bn, a €650m overshoot versus the plan. Even without the concession‑related VAT element, the outperformance stood at €344m. The ministry attributed the VAT strength to high consumer prices that pushed up nominal spending.

Tax Revenue Deviation by Category€ million
VAT
650 € million
Special Consumption Tax
-224 € million
Property Tax
31 € million
Income Tax
7 € million
Social Contributions
-2 € million

Data from the article text

Mixed picture across other taxes

Property taxes added €1.51bn, €31m ahead of target. Income taxes came in at €8.85bn, a marginal €7m above goal, but the headline masked a €211m overshoot in personal income tax offset by a €105m shortfall in corporate income tax and a €99m deficit in other income categories. Special consumption taxes fell short: €2.58bn, or €224m below target, suggesting softer demand for heavily taxed goods. Social contributions were essentially flat at €23m.

One‑off factors and the underlying trend

Several timing effects distorted the headline surplus. Excluding scheduled shifts in defence payments, investment outlays, and general‑government transfers, as well as the €884m early RRF receipt and €574m in early public investment cash, the primary surplus outperformance narrowed to €246m on a modified cash basis. The ministry stressed that the fiscal‑accounting measure differs from the cash‑based result. These are central‑administration figures, not the general‑government aggregate that includes local authorities and social funds.

Primary Surplus: Target vs Actual€ billion
2025 Actual
5.343 € billion
2026 Target
1.243 € billion
2026 Actual
3.65 € billion

Data from the article text

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