New Democracy leads ELAS by 13.3 points in July poll as Tsipras rises and Karystianou's Hope slides

The electoral landscape

A Metron Analysis survey published on 2 July 2026 places New Democracy (ND) in first place with an estimated vote share of 30.4%, followed by Alexis Tsipras's new party ELAS at 17.1%. The gap between the two stands at 13.3 points, up from the previous May measurement when ND led by roughly 11 points. PASOK remains third with a marginal 0.2-point increase to 11.4%.

ND30.4%

ELAS17.1%

PASOK11.4%

Hope for Democracy7.5%

KKE6.2%

Greek Solution5.7%

Course of Freedom5.6%

Voice of Reason3.8%

MeRA253.1%

SYRIZA1.4%

Niki1.2%

Democrats1%

ND

30.4 %

ELAS

17.1 %

PASOK

11.4 %

Hope for Democracy

7.5 %

KKE

6.2 %

Greek Solution

5.7 %

Course of Freedom

5.6 %

Voice of Reason

3.8 %

MeRA25

3.1 %

SYRIZA

1.4 %

Niki

1.2 %

Democrats

1 %

Data from the article text

Voter movements

ELAS has gained 2 points in voting intention since May, consolidating its position as the main challenger to ND. According to the poll, 54% of its voters come from the now-minor SYRIZA, 17% from those who cast a blank or invalid ballot in the last election, 12% from PASOK and 5% from ND. Karystianou's Hope for Democracy fell from around 9.2% to 6.2% in voting intention, shedding nearly 3 points. Its largest voter pool (30%) comes from non-voters or blank ballots; another 21% previously voted for ND.

Leadership ratings

Kyriakos Mitsotakis remains the most suitable prime minister with 29% (up 1 point), while Tsipras follows at 15% (also up 1). Nikos Androulakis scores 5%, and Kyriakos Velopoulos, Zoi Konstantopoulou and Maria Karystianou each get 4%. Former premier Antonis Samaras is at 2%, the same as KKE leader Dimitris Koutsoumpas. A quarter of respondents chose 'none of the above'.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis29%

Alexis Tsipras15%

Nikos Androulakis5%

Kyriakos Velopoulos4%

Zoi Konstantopoulou4%

Maria Karystianou4%

Afroditi Latinopoulou2%

Antonis Samaras2%

Dimitris Koutsoumpas2%

Yanis Varoufakis1%

None of the above25%

Kyriakos Mitsotakis

29 %

Alexis Tsipras

15 %

Nikos Androulakis

5 %

Kyriakos Velopoulos

4 %

Zoi Konstantopoulou

4 %

Maria Karystianou

4 %

Afroditi Latinopoulou

2 %

Antonis Samaras

2 %

Dimitris Koutsoumpas

2 %

Yanis Varoufakis

1 %

None of the above

25 %

Data from the article text

Public mood

The survey captures a deeply dissatisfied electorate: 67% believe the country is on the wrong track, and the same share give the government a negative rating. The prime minister's personal approval is also underwater. The main opposition and PASOK leader Androulakis receive negative ratings of 82% and 80% respectively. High prices remain the top concern, cited by 50% of respondents (up 3 points from May), followed by the state of the economy (31%), institutional crisis (21%) and corruption (14%).

The political context

With early elections not ruled out, the country is effectively in a pre-election period. The poll confirms that Tsipras's ELAS is solidifying its place as the main opposition pole, while Karystianou's Hope has lost momentum. The demand for political change dominates the public mood: 60% prefer change over the government's narrative of stability and continuity, which convinces only 39%.