Scope upgrades Greece to BBB+ while Moody's lifts sovereign outlook to positive

Sovereign rating actions

Scope Ratings upgraded Greece's long-term credit rating by one notch to BBB+ from BBB on 18 September 2026, setting the outlook to stable. Under Scope's rating definitions updated in December 2025, short-term ratings do not carry outlooks, leading to the withdrawal of the stable outlook on the S-2 short-term rating. The decision positions Greece on the highest step of the BBB category, one notch below the A- rating level. Concurrently, Moody's maintained Greece's sovereign credit rating at Baa3, the lowest investment-grade tier, while revising its outlook from stable to positive. The move by Moody's is the third positive outlook change for Greece in approximately one month, following decisions by R&I on 17 August and DBRS on 4 September. Upcoming sovereign reviews are scheduled for S&P on 23 October and Fitch on 6 November.

Debt trajectory and fiscal figures

The decision by Scope was based primarily on the rapid decline of Greece's public debt ratio and strong primary surpluses. Greek debt stood at 146.1% of GDP in 2025, down from 154.2% in 2024 and 209.4% during its peak in 2020. Scope projects that the debt ratio will drop to approximately 136% of GDP in 2026 and reach around 110% of GDP by 2031. For 2025, Scope recorded a general government budget surplus of 1.7% of GDP and a primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP. Structural improvements in tax collection, digital compliance, long maturities, and early debt repayments have supported this downward fiscal trajectory.

Official reactions in Athens

Greek cabinet members welcomed the credit rating announcements, stating that the decisions validate the country's fiscal management and structural reforms. Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis linked the ratings to early debt prepayments and the Athens Stock Exchange returning to developed market status.

Greece is upgraded today twice, by two different international rating agencies, at a time when international markets are being tested. And this has enormous value.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated that credit rating agencies that once labelled Greek sovereign debt as junk now view the country as a model of resilience and debt reduction. Alternate Minister of National Economy and Finance Nikos Papathanasis stated that maintaining fiscal seriousness provides resources to support households and businesses facing geopolitical instability and energy volatility.

Structural constraints and economic outlook

Despite the ratings improvements, rating agencies outlined persistent vulnerabilities that constrain Greece from entering the single-A rating tier. Moody's revised its economic growth projection for Greece downward to 1.7% for both 2026 and 2027, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.1%. Long-term potential growth is projected at 1.3%, while the external deficit is expected to remain between 5% and 6% of GDP. Moody's noted that total debt volume remains Greece's primary credit weakness, forecasting a decline to approximately 120% of GDP by 2030. Improved credit ratings lower government bond yields and borrowing costs for Greek banks and commercial enterprises, providing a buffer against higher international interest rates.