Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading After Winning $1.2 Million on Polymarket Bets
Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian Google engineer living in Switzerland, allegedly used internal search data to place bets on prediction market Polymarket, netting $1.2 million in illegal profits.
The Accusation
A software engineer at Google, Michele Spagnuolo, has been charged by US federal prosecutors with using confidential company data to win $1.2 million on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The 36-year-old Italian citizen, who resides in Switzerland, was arrested on May 27, 2026, and appeared before a federal judge in Manhattan. He faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, and money laundering. Authorities allege Spagnuolo exploited internal tools to access Google's closely guarded Year in Search 2025 data before its public release.
Michele Spagnuolo allegedly abused his elevated access to confidential trends to place bets with non-public information and receive over a million dollars in illegal profits.
The Insider Scheme
Between October and December 2025, Spagnuolo placed wagers totalling $2.7 million across 25 different predictions linked to Google's annual search trends, according to the indictment. He used the pseudonym "AlphaRaccoon" on Polymarket and relied on a software tool marked "Google Confidential" to view internal marketing materials and consolidated search statistics. These data allowed him to bet with near-certainty on outcomes that the broader Polymarket user base considered improbable. Prosecutors say the information asymmetry was the key to his gains.
- Spagnuolo bets on Kendrick Lamar as most searched person using internal Google trends.
- Wagers placed on D4vd becoming the year's top search; market probability was near zero.
- Google officially releases Year in Search 2025, confirming D4vd as the most searched person.
- Spagnuolo arrested by the FBI in New York.
- Charges unsealed; Spagnuolo appears in Manhattan federal court.
The D4vd Wager
Spagnuolo's most lucrative bet centred on D4vd, an indie pop musician. On November 27, 2025, he wagered that D4vd would be Google's most searched person of the year. At the time, the market assigned this outcome a "near-zero probability," but Spagnuolo had already seen internal data showing a surge in searches after D4vd's arrest on suspicion of murdering a 13-year-old girl, Celeste Rivas. When Google officially announced its Year in Search results on December 4, D4vd topped the list, and Spagnuolo collected a substantial payout. He also bet successfully on rapper Kendrick Lamar using early indicators from Google's trends.
Investigation and Arrest
The FBI and the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York traced Spagnuolo's Polymarket activity through blockchain records. Despite using multiple cryptocurrency accounts, agents identified him after finding an account opened with an Italian identity document. He was taken into custody on May 27 and released on a $2.25 million bail. Google has suspended Spagnuolo and says it is cooperating with law enforcement. A company spokesperson stated that accessing such data is a serious policy violation.
Using confidential information to place bets constitutes a serious violation of our policies.
Wider Context
This case is the second known instance of insider trading on prediction markets. In April 2026, US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged with using classified military information to bet on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The Spagnuolo case highlights growing regulatory scrutiny of crypto-based prediction platforms like Polymarket, which allow users to speculate on everything from entertainment to geopolitics. Prosecutors warn they will pursue anyone who undermines market integrity with stolen information.
Insider trading undermines the integrity of our markets.
