Glapiński signals rate cut possible this year, may propose 25 bp reduction in September; MPC mood 'cautious doves'
NBP President Adam Glapiński said a rate cut is probable in 2026 and he may submit a motion for a 25-basis-point reduction at the first post-summer MPC meeting, describing the council as 'cautious doves'.
Monetary policy outlook
The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75 percent on Wednesday, after a single 25-bp cut in March. At a press conference the next day, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said he personally views a further reduction this year as probable if the economic parameters stay the same. He signalled readiness to table a motion for a 25-bp cut at the first meeting after the summer break, likely in September, although he stressed he holds only one vote on the ten-member council.
If nothing changes, all these signals, parameters will stay as they are now, then for me it's probable, but what the Council members decide, I can't say.
I do not rule out submitting a motion at the post-holiday meeting for a 25-basis-point cut. I don't know if it will be accepted.
- MPC cuts rates by 25 bp, reference rate drops to 3.75%
- MPC holds rates at 3.75%; mood described as dovish
- Glapiński signals a possible 25 bp cut motion for September
- First post-holiday MPC meeting; Glapiński may propose a rate cut
Mood on the Council
Glapiński characterised the prevailing sentiment among RPP members as "cautious doves". He himself is, in his words, decidedly dovish, favouring lower rates to support growth. The latest meeting did not formally discuss a cut this year, but the tone was distinctly dovish. The governor ruled out two reductions and said he does not expect an extraordinary session in July. He predicted that if the situation stabilises, the council's caution will gradually unwind through mid-2027.
These are cautious doves. As for me, I am decidedly dovish.
Cash in circulation crosses a threshold
Glapiński also announced that the value of banknotes and coins in circulation in Poland exceeded 500 billion złoty for the first time at 15:00 on Thursday. He called it a symbolic moment that reflects the scale of the Polish economy. At end-May the figure stood at 482.5 billion zł, up 4.6 billion (1.0 percent) from April. The broad M3 money supply reached 2.85 trillion zł at that point.
What happens next
The governor's comments shift market attention toward the first post-summer MPC meeting, expected in September. Whether the cut materialises depends on the collective decision of the council. Glapiński cautioned that his own dovish assessment is just one opinion and that the final outcome will emerge from the full board's vote.
