Germany weighs return of mandatory military service by mid-2027 as volunteer recruitment collapses

A recruitment drive that faltered

Germany’s push to enlarge its armed forces through voluntary enlistment is falling dramatically short of targets. To meet Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ambition of creating Europe’s most powerful conventional army, the Bundeswehr needs to grow from 185,000 career soldiers to at least 260,000 by 2035. A voluntary military service scheme and a mandatory census for 18-year-old men were launched, yet from January to May 2026 only 530 volunteers signed up out of roughly 300,000 contacted.

If we cannot meet these goals through voluntary means, we will have to return to mandatory conscription. The decision must be taken by 31 July next year.

The conscription model

Thomas Röwekamp, chairman of the Bundestag defence committee, told AFP that mandatory service would not be a blanket call-up of an entire age cohort, estimated at around 350,000 German men turning 18 each year. Instead, conscription would be targeted: only the number of young people required to hit the Bundeswehr’s annual recruitment targets would be drafted. Röwekamp stressed that his primary concern is expanding the ranks of career and contract soldiers who operate fighter jets, warships, tanks and Patriot air-defence systems.

The geopolitical pressure

The drive to rebuild German military manpower arises from a dual concern: a mounting Russian threat and an unpredictable United States ally. Berlin assesses that Russia’s armed forces could be ready for a direct military confrontation with the West as early as 2029. Friedrich Merz has framed the force expansion as essential to national and European security.

A generational disconnect

Röwekamp acknowledged that a youth movement opposing military service has been mobilising regularly in Germany, and said he understood their unease. Since conscription was suspended in 2011, he noted, security topics have largely disappeared from public discourse with the younger generation. “My recommendation is that we start a dialogue with this generation,” he said, arguing that topics of war, peace and the need for defence must be re-introduced into the national conversation.

The road to a decision

Parliamentary leaders have set a firm deadline: by 31 July 2027, the government must decide whether voluntary recruitment can be salvaged or whether compulsory service must return. Röwekamp expressed “serious doubts” that the “very ambitious” volunteer targets can be met, making a political pivot toward conscription increasingly likely.