Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote as AfD gains challenge Chancellor Merz

Voting begins in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Voters in Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern cast ballots on Sunday, 20 September 2026, in regional elections shaped by the state vote in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks prior. In that ballot, Alternative for Germany (AfD) won over 43% of the vote, putting pressure on traditional parties and testing the established "Brandmauer" firewall designed to exclude the right-wing party from power. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm campaigned alongside Saxony-Anhalt winner Ulrich Siegmund to harness that momentum. Speaking to the Foreign Press Association, Holm pointed to regional contagion between the eastern states.

What I thought is happening: if things go well in Saxony-Anhalt, we will notice it here too.

The contest in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Pre-election polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern places AfD at 36%, more than double its previous result in the state. By contrast, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) registers at 6% in surveys, creating the prospect that the party could miss the 5% electoral threshold required for parliamentary representation. Founded in 1945, the CDU has historically functioned as a broad "Volkspartei" regularly securing above 30% in regional and federal elections. Observers note that voters burdened by economic difficulties are using their votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to penalize the federal government. While AfD led polls for months, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) mounted a late push in the campaign's final phase.

Housing debate and coalition math in Berlin

In Berlin, Die Linke candidate Elif Eralp has campaigned as the direct counter to AfD's gains in eastern Germany. Eralp, who could become the capital's first mayor of Turkish descent, has drawn comparisons to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Her campaign focuses heavily on the city's housing market, with proposals to expand public housing, limit rent increases, and preserve the option of expropriating large corporate landlords. Survey data shows that 32% of Berlin residents view housing and rents as the city's primary problem, well ahead of immigration concerns. The latest ZDF public television poll shows Die Linke slightly ahead of the CDU, with AfD closely trailing both. Stefan Evers, Berlin's Senator for Finance and Culture, leads the CDU ticket following the exit of Mayor Kai Wegner, holding the party around 20% in polls compared to the 28.2% it won in 2023.

Leadership pressure on Chancellor Merz

The two elections present severe risks for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the federal CDU leadership. Following the loss in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier, Merz faced immediate calls to resign from the chancellorship.

We are in deep shock.

Merz rejected demands to step down at the time, but national surveys now put his job approval rating at 13%, the lowest level recorded for a German chancellor. Within the CDU, internal challengers are waiting for the final results in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern before deciding on a formal leadership contest. In Berlin, no two parties hold enough seats for a majority, making a three-party coalition inevitable. Polls indicate that a left-leaning alliance of Die Linke, the Greens, and the SPD is mathematically possible, though deep policy disagreements remain between the three parties.