German gas bills could fall for millions in 2026 despite Iran war driving wholesale prices up
An analysis by comparison portal Verivox shows that millions of German households could pay less for gas this year, even as wholesale prices surged due to the Iran conflict, because utilities buy long-term.
A new analysis by comparison portal Verivox suggests that many existing gas customers in Germany could enjoy lower annual bills in 2026, cushioned by the long-term purchasing strategies of energy suppliers, even as wholesale gas prices have lurched upward following the Iran conflict.
Household bills projected to fall
In the basic supply model for a sample household with an annual consumption of 20,000 kWh, average yearly costs would drop from €2,802 in 2025 to €2,687 this year, a decrease of 4.1%, according to Verivox. About 3.7 million households would benefit from that drop. For households on the cheapest local special tariff, costs are projected to fall by 3% from €2,292 to €2,223, affecting around 7.5 million homes, provided that suppliers do not adjust prices further this year.
- Basic supply 2025
- 2802 €
- Basic supply 2026
- 2687 €
- Special tariff 2025
- 2292 €
- Special tariff 2026
- 2223 €
Wholesale prices spike on Iran war
Wholesale gas markets were roiled by the Iran war, which drove prices from roughly €30 per megawatt hour before the conflict to a peak of €66, according to the energy industry association BDEW. By Friday, they had retreated to about €41. The BDEW notes that rising or falling wholesale prices do not have an immediate effect on existing household contracts because energy suppliers plan and hedge their procurement over the long term.
- Pre-conflict (early 2026)
- 30 €/MWh
- Peak during crisis
- 66 €/MWh
- Friday 26 June 2026
- 41 €/MWh
Long-term contracts shield existing customers
Storck added that it is possible individual suppliers could still adjust prices before the end of the year.The recent wholesale price increases as a result of the Middle East conflict have not yet reached many households. Most suppliers procure gas for their existing customers on a long-term basis and can thus cushion short-term price fluctuations.
New customers face rising prices
While existing tariffs remain largely insulated, the average gas price for new household customers has climbed 10.5 percent since the start of the year to around 12.3 cents per kilowatt hour. The cheapest special tariff from a local supplier averages 11.4 cents per kWh, while the cheapest nationwide term contract currently costs about 9.3 cents on average.
Switch to save
Consumer advice centres and the Bundesnetzagentur, Germany's network regulator, recommend that households regularly check whether they can lower costs by switching suppliers.
The more consumers take advantage of the opportunity to switch suppliers, the greater the competition in the market.
