Energy & Trade · Warsaw

Fuel prices climb as Poland's CPN package expires, VAT returns to 23%

The Polish government's temporary fuel price reduction package expired on 1 July 2026, pushing VAT back to 23% and lifting maximum price caps. Early pump checks show increases of up to 83 groszy per litre.

AI text based on reports by polsatnews.pl, wpolityce.pl, rmf24.pl and other publishers. Changed on 1 Jul at 08:08. How it is made

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In brief

Warsaw · Poland

How it came to this

31 MarCPN package takes effect: VAT cut to 8%, excise reduced, maximum prices set
15 JunReduced excise duty expires
30 JunReduced VAT and price caps expire
1 JulFuel prices rise, VAT returns to 23%

What happened

On 1 July 2026, the Polish government's "Ceny Paliwa Niżej" (CPN) package expired, ending the reduced VAT rate of 8% on fuel and the maximum price caps. The standard 23% VAT rate returned, and fuel stations regained the ability to set their own prices. Early observations show immediate price increases at the pump.

On the ground

At one Warsaw station, the price of 95-octane petrol rose from 5.99 zł per litre on Tuesday to 6.82 zł on Wednesday, an increase of 83 groszy. Diesel climbed from 6.16 zł to 6.99 zł. For a typical 50-litre tank, the cost of filling up with petrol rose from about 300 zł to 341 zł, and diesel from 308 zł to nearly 350 zł. Drivers expressed frustration.

“Expensive, very expensive, and definitely too expensive.”

Unnamed driver

Another said,

“It's a must, you can't wait. If you have no fuel and need to work, you have to refuel.”

Unnamed driver

Expert forecast

Urszula Cieślak, an analyst at Reflex, told PAP that the average increase would be 30-50 groszy per litre, though the VAT jump alone could justify over 50 gr. She noted that the CPN package had "flattened" prices, suppressing differences between stations, especially on motorways.

“The disappearance of this mechanism will cause differences between individual stations to become more pronounced again. It may not happen from 1 July, but after a few days we will see how individual stations reacted to the withdrawal from the CPN package.”

Urszula Cieślak, reflex analyst

She added that no sharp wholesale price drops are expected, making it difficult to offset the VAT increase, as the zloty has weakened and oil price declines have stalled.

Background of the CPN package

The CPN package was introduced at the end of March 2026 in response to a surge in global oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. It cut VAT on petrol, diesel, and biocomponents from 23% to 8%, and reduced excise duty by 29 gr for petrol and 28 gr for diesel. Maximum retail prices were set by the Minister of Energy. The excise reduction ended on 15 June, and the VAT reduction expired on 30 June. Before the package, in the week prior to its introduction, average prices had spiked: 95 petrol reached 7.16 zł/l (up from 5.73 a month earlier), 98 petrol 7.85 zł/l (from 6.48), and diesel 8.75 zł/l (from 5.98). On 31 March, the first day of maximum prices, caps were set at 6.16 zł for 95, 6.76 zł for 98, and 7.60 zł for diesel. By 30 June, the last day, those caps had fallen to 6.00 zł, 6.68 zł, and 6.19 zł respectively.

Government stance

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański reiterated that the package was always temporary.

“The CPN package was from the very beginning clearly communicated as a temporary package, linked to the situation in the Middle East and the fact that oil prices shot up to as much as $115-116 per barrel. Today it's around $70.”

Andrzej Domański, minister of Finance

He had earlier cited analyst forecasts of a 30-40 gr increase.

Average fuel prices before, during, and at end of CPNzł/l

Data from the article text

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