Fuel prices set to rise in Poland as CPN package expires, VAT jumps from 8% to 23% on 1 July
After three months of capped prices and reduced tax, Polish motorists will see petrol and diesel rise by 30 to 60 groszy per litre as the CPN package expires and VAT reverts from 8% to 23%.
Background of the CPN package
The temporary ‘Ceny Paliwa Niżej’ (CPN) package was introduced at the end of March 2026 in response to the oil price shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Oil surged to $115–116 per barrel, pushing average fuel prices in Poland to record highs. As part of CPN, VAT on petrol, diesel and certain biocomponents was slashed from 23% to 8%, excise duty was cut by 29 groszy on petrol and 28 groszy on diesel, and maximum retail prices were set daily by the Energy Minister. The government repeatedly stressed the measures were temporary.
The CPN package was temporary from the start, linked to the Middle East war and oil prices spiking to $115–116 per barrel. Today it’s $70.
Current price caps and the reversal
On 30 June, the last day of the reduced VAT, maximum prices at Polish stations stood at 6.00 zł per litre for 95‑octane petrol, 6.68 zł for 98‑octane and 6.19 zł for diesel. From 1 July, the VAT rate returns to 23% and the maximum price mechanism ceases. Analysts at Reflex, a fuel market consultancy, expect retail prices to rise by 40–60 groszy per litre, though station‑to‑station variation will reappear after three months of flat pricing.
We had the lowest fuel prices in Europe for three months. From tomorrow, VAT returns to 23%, causing prices to rise.
Expert analysis and global factors
Wholesale market conditions offer little cushion. Reflex analyst Cieślak noted that no sharp drops are expected in the wholesale market, while a weaker zloty and stabilising crude prices make it hard to offset the VAT increase. Global oil flows remain fragile: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which collapsed from a pre‑war rate of 130–140 vessels per day to single digits during intense fighting, has recovered to 70–80, but a new military incident over the weekend underscores the uncertainty. US–Iran negotiations are moving slowly, and the Atlantic hurricane season adds risk.
We don’t foresee sharp wholesale drops, so it will be hard to offset the VAT increase. Macro factors like a weaker zloty and halted oil price declines are at play.
Government decision and outlook
Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka had expressed ‘cautious optimism’ that falling global crude prices might make an extension unnecessary. Finance Minister Domański confirmed the package would not be prolonged, stressing its emergency nature. With no further state intervention, drivers will see prices diverge across stations from the first days of July, reflecting local competition and cost structures.
- CPN package introduced. VAT cut to 8%, excise reduced, maximum prices set.
- First day of maximum prices: petrol 95 at 6.16 PLN/l, petrol 98 at 6.76 PLN/l, diesel at 7.60 PLN/l.
- Reduced excise duty expires.
- Last day of reduced VAT and maximum prices. Prices: petrol 95 at 6.00 PLN/l, petrol 98 at 6.68 PLN/l, diesel at 6.19 PLN/l.
- VAT returns to 23%. Maximum prices abolished. Expected increase of 30–60 groszy per litre.
- Petrol 95 pre‑CPN (avg)
- 7.16 PLN/litre
- Petrol 95 Jun 30 (max)
- 6 PLN/litre
- Petrol 98 pre‑CPN (avg)
- 7.85 PLN/litre
- Petrol 98 Jun 30 (max)
- 6.68 PLN/litre
- Diesel pre‑CPN (avg)
- 8.75 PLN/litre
- Diesel Jun 30 (max)
- 6.19 PLN/litre
