France installed as clear World Cup favourite as last 16 begins; England sweat on Reece James fitness

France set the pace

France enter the last 16 as the tournament's undisputed front-runner, having scored at least three goals in every match and winning each by a margin of two or more. Their 3-0 dismissal of Sweden in the round of 32 underlined a attacking unit that includes Kylian Mbappé (six goals), Michael Olise (five assists) and Ousmane Dembélé. The Athletic's live projection tool gives Les Bleus a 28 per cent probability of lifting the trophy at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, and all six Guardian judges placed them at No 1 in the latest power rankings.

I did say that I wanted to enjoy this World Cup to the fullest.

Spain sit second in most assessments, yet to concede a goal after four matches and coming off a 3-0 win over Austria in which Mikel Oyarzabal took his tournament tally to four. Luis de la Fuente called the performance "almost perfect". Argentina, the defending champions, dropped to third after needing extra time and an own goal to edge Cape Verde 3-2, though Lionel Messi's seventh goal of the tournament kept them on course.

Golden Boot duel

Messi leads the scoring chart with seven goals, one ahead of Mbappé. Erling Haaland and Harry Kane are joint-third on five. Bookmakers have Messi as the +110 favourite to finish top scorer, with Mbappé at +140. Kane is a distant +1600, while Oyarzabal is seen as the best value among the chasing pack at +3300.

England's right-back puzzle

Reece James missed England's final training session in Mexico City and is doubtful for the last-16 tie against Mexico on Monday (01:00 BST). The Chelsea defender has not trained fully since suffering a hamstring injury against Ghana. Jarell Quansah, however, has returned to full training after his own hamstring problem and is available, easing Thomas Tuchel's concerns. Djed Spence started at right-back against DR Congo, but Declan Rice finished the match in that position.

Knockout shocks so far

The round of 32 produced several upsets. Paraguay eliminated Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw, with Julio Enciso scoring first and Kai Havertz equalising. Morocco beat the Netherlands in a shootout following a 91st-minute equaliser from Issa Diop, with Yassine Bounou saving the decisive penalty. Egypt also advanced on penalties, overcoming Australia. Colombia beat Ghana 1-0 through Jhon Arias.

I think Morocco has gained everybody's respect now.

Last-16 matchups

France face Paraguay on Saturday, with Argentina meeting Egypt on Tuesday. England take on co-hosts Mexico at the Azteca, while Spain have a tough test against Portugal. Canada, another co-host, play Morocco later on Saturday. The betting market reflects the gulf: France are heavy favourites to advance, Argentina similarly against Egypt, and England are 9-to-1 to win the tournament overall.