France braces for heatwave with temperatures set to reach 40°C by weekend
Météo-France warns of a new heatwave starting Wednesday, with the mercury expected to hit 40°C locally on Sunday in several regions, making it one of the most precocious on record.
A rapid return of extreme heat
A new heatwave will begin to sweep across France on Wednesday, June 17, just weeks after the country experienced record-breaking temperatures in late May. Météo-France has placed more than 50 departments under a yellow heatwave alert, with temperatures expected to climb progressively through the week. By Thursday and Friday, Paris and the surrounding Île-de-France region will see highs above 35°C.
The intensification will continue into the weekend, with Sunday, June 21 (the summer solstice) and Monday, June 22 forecast to be the hottest days. Forecasters anticipate localised peaks of 40°C in several regions, including Poitou-Charentes, Centre-Val de Loire, Île-de-France, and the Rhône valley. The department of Maine-et-Loire is also set to suffer, with 39°C expected in Angers and Saumur and 40°C in Cholet on Sunday and Monday.
There are models that show temperatures could reach 40°C locally.
Comparison with the May event
This will be the second intense heat episode before the official start of summer. The late May heatwave was described as the most precocious in French history, with monthly temperature records falling across the west of the country: 34.7°C in Angers, 36.5°C in Saumur, and 35°C in Cholet. The current event is expected to be more intense and last longer, meeting the criteria for a national heatwave.
Météo-France climatologist Matthieu Sorel noted that France has recorded 27 heatwaves between 2010 and today, compared to 25 in the entire period from 1947 to 2010. The current one ranks among the earliest severe heat episodes observed.
Metropolitan France has recorded 27 heatwaves between 2010 and today against 25 between 1947 and 2010.
- Yellow alert for more than 50 departments; temperatures begin to climb.
- Paris and Île-de-France exceed 35°C; alert likely upgraded to orange in Centre-Est, north Rhône-Alpes, and Paris region.
- High heat continues with risk of thunderstorms in parts of the west; temperatures average 35°C in many areas.
- Summer solstice: peak heat expected. Localised 40°C in Poitou-Charentes, Centre-Val de Loire, Île-de-France, and the Rhône valley.
- Heat persists; 39-40°C possible in Angers, Saumur, Cholet. Hellfest festival sees 36-37°C.
- Temperatures finally drop below 30°C as the heatwave eases.
Regional outlook and uncertainty
While the official Météo-France forecast points to a median scenario of 35°C in Nantes on Monday, an extreme projection from the German ICON model suggested 45°C there. Frédéric Guibaud, chief forecaster for Météo-France in the West, cautioned that such values must be treated with great reserve given the lead time, and that other models show lower figures.
There is great uncertainty that increases with time. Météo-France has chosen to display a median scenario.
In Loire-Atlantique, festival-goers at the Hellfest in Clisson this weekend can expect temperatures of 36 or 37°C. The alert level is likely to be raised to orange on Thursday for departments in Centre-Est, the north of Rhône-Alpes, and the Paris region, and may be extended further as the heat builds.
Aftermath and relief
Thunderstorms may bring some local relief on Thursday and Friday, particularly in eastern and northern parts of the west, but the heat will persist across the country. Only from Tuesday, June 23, are temperatures expected to drop back below the 30°C mark. Météo-France will hold a press briefing at 15:30 on Tuesday June 16 to detail the event's scale.
