EU to halve Russian pollock imports within two years, German fish stick supply at risk

The sanction plan

The European Commission's next sanctions package against Russia targets Alaska pollock, the primary fish in German fish fingers, Schlemmerfilets and other frozen products. According to dpa, the plan envisages an immediate cap at the average import volume of 2023–2025. After one year, only 75% of that level would be allowed, falling to 50% after two years. The goal is to shrink Russian export revenues and complicate its war against Ukraine. A full import ban had been considered but was set aside over fears of severe consequences for European businesses and consumers.

Germany's dependency

Russia is the world's fourth-largest marine fish producer, and Germany is the EU's biggest buyer of Russian Alaska pollock fillets. According to Germany's Federal Statistical Office, 93,500 tonnes of frozen fillets were imported last year, worth around €228 million. The Thünen Institute, part of the agriculture ministry, reports that Russia's share of German pollock fillet imports climbed from 15% in 2020 to 45% in 2024. The country also hosts the world's largest fish finger factories.

2020

15 %

2024

45 %

Data from the article text

No easy substitute

The institute warns that the planned cuts will hit supply, prices and jobs in the German processing industry. Industry discussions include replacing the shortfall with farmed freshwater fish such as pangasius, but a full substitute is impossible — neither by volume, presentation nor price. US fisheries produce comparable amounts, but they are tied into long-term contracts and cannot fill the gap.

“In sum, the German fish industry and thus the supply of the European market with affordable fish products would be irrevocably damaged.”

Immediate cap (2023–2025 avg)100

After 1 year75

After 2 years50

Immediate cap (2023–2025 avg)

100 % of baseline

After 1 year

75 % of baseline

After 2 years

50 % of baseline

Data from the article text

Irreversible market shift

The institute expects that Russian pollock no longer purchased by the EU will flow to other regions, as global demand for cheap Alaska pollock already exceeds supply. Its dossier "Droht eine Fischstäbchenkrise?" warns that even after the Ukraine war ends, fish sticks will come from East Asia rather than local production. German producers such as Iglo and Frosta declined to comment when approached by dpa.