A deal announced, then ignored

On Monday, US President Donald Trump declared he had secured an agreement for Israel and Hezbollah to stop shooting at each other. The Lebanese embassy in Washington described the arrangement as initially covering Israeli attacks on Beirut and Hezbollah attacks on Israeli territory, with a later expansion in scope. Within hours, the reality on the ground contradicted the announcement. Israeli forces struck around 30 locations across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 12 people according to Lebanese reports. Hezbollah, meanwhile, said it attacked Israeli troops in occupied southern Lebanese lands but did not claim strikes inside Israel. The Israeli military reported intercepting two projectiles from Lebanon.

The Trump-Netanyahu clash

Behind the diplomatic confusion lies an increasingly open confrontation between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Axios, Trump called Netanyahu "crazy" during a heated phone call, telling him: "You're fucking crazy. You'd be in jail if it weren't for me. I'm saving your skin. Now everyone hates you. Everyone hates Israel for this." The US president pressured Netanyahu to pull back from plans to intensify strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, a densely populated Hezbollah stronghold. Residents of the Lebanese capital voiced relief when the threatened bombardment did not materialise, though thousands had already fled their homes in anticipation.

“I had a very productive call with Prime Minister 'Bibi' Netanyahu of Israel and there will be no troops going to Beirut and the troops that were on their way are already returning.”

Iran ties the conflicts together

Tehran issued an ultimatum on Monday, announcing it would abandon peace negotiations with the United States—talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz—until Israel ceases its attacks in Lebanon. The US-Iran ceasefire, in place since 8 April, is fragile. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned it is "prepared for all possible scenarios" and that any return to military confrontation would involve different operations, geography, and weaponry. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed confidence that a nuclear deal with Iran could be reached "in the coming days," but acknowledged the linkage: Washington wants the Lebanon talks to remain independent of the Iran track, while Tehran insists they are inseparable.

“Israel and Lebanon can do a peace deal tomorrow. Israel has no territorial claims in Lebanon. Hezbollah is the impediment.”

Washington talks continue

Despite the fighting, Israeli and Lebanese delegations met in Washington on Tuesday for a fourth round of direct negotiations since the current war reignited on 2 March. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said the sides are "advancing toward a comprehensive agreement" aimed at restoring Lebanese sovereignty and guaranteeing Israeli security. The talks, led by ambassadors Nada Hadamé Moauad of Lebanon and Yechiel Leiter of Israel, are scheduled to resume on Wednesday. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the negotiations "the least costly choice for Lebanon," though Hezbollah strongly opposes them.

“Progress continues in the political and security spheres, breaking with the failures of the last twenty years and advancing toward a comprehensive agreement aimed at restoring Lebanon's sovereignty and guaranteeing Israel's security.”

A war that never stopped

The ceasefire officially in place since 17 April has been violated by both sides from the start. Israel's military escalated significantly in late May, declaring all territory south of the Zahrani River—roughly 40 kilometres from the border—a combat zone. Israeli troops captured the medieval Beaufort Castle this week, a strategic symbol in every war between the two countries. The offensive has killed approximately 3,300 to 3,468 people and displaced over one million, according to various tallies. Hezbollah has increasingly deployed fibre-optic-guided kamikaze drones that resist GPS jamming, killing several Israeli soldiers in recent days and forcing schools and businesses in northern Israel to shut down.

Voices from the ground

In southern Lebanon, the destruction is near-total. Residents describe a landscape without homes or roads. "Even if the war ends, people won't be able to return home soon. We need a lot of time and money to rebuild everything," one member of the Shia community told reporters. In Beirut, families who had fled the southern suburbs in fear of bombardment are asking whether Trump's statements represent a genuine agreement or a publicity manoeuvre. A source close to Hezbollah noted the confusion: "It's hard to know what's happening, but it's clear Trump doesn't want the war to resume, and Iran has been very threatening."

“Trump cannot stop the war if the militia does not hand over its weapons. If they are not destroyed, we will have the same problem every two years.”