Feijóo's censure motion stalls as PNV and Junts reject overtures, leaving Sánchez afloat despite corruption cases

The censure motion gambit

Alberto Núñez Feijóo spent the week testing whether a no-confidence motion could dislodge Pedro Sánchez, floating a so-called instrumental motion that would install a Vox-free government with a mandate to call immediate elections after cleaning up institutions. The offer was directed at the PNV and Junts, the two conservative-leaning parties that backed Sánchez's investiture. On Monday, Feijóo made the proposal in a television interview; by Tuesday, the answers were in.

If he has something serious to explain, we'll see each other in Waterloo any day he wants.

Junts's secretary general set a condition the PP cannot meet: travel to Belgium to negotiate with Carles Puigdemont. The PNV's Aitor Esteban was equally blunt, citing the PP's hostility to the Basque language in European institutions. Both parties know their electorates would not forgive them for aligning with the far right to bring down the government.

The Vox arithmetic

Three years after the inconclusive July 2023 election, the parliamentary mathematics remain unchanged. Feijóo can only reach a majority with Vox, and Vox's presence repels every other potential partner. The PP sealed its third coalition agreement with Vox this week in Castilla y León and will now negotiate Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla's investiture in Andalusia with the far right, despite having campaigned on precisely the opposite premise.

Alright, it's true what you say. You're like an alarm clock hammer, but now what? How do you plan to get into government?

The Banco Sabadell chairman's question at a closed-door Cercle d'Economia breakfast in Barcelona captured the business elite's dilemma: awareness of institutional decay and desire for change, but deep doubt that Feijóo can deliver it without generating new problems in Catalonia.

Sánchez's lifeline

Moncloa analysts consider the immediate-election scenario dead. August is not an option for voting, and the judicial offensive against the PSOE has not forced the government's hand. Sánchez's team believes the PP and its allies misplayed their timing. The president has begun the formal steps to present next year's budget, signalling his intention to reach summer 2027.

All the political parties have accepted corruption and become accomplices.

The PP spokesman's accusation did not shift the parliamentary calculus. Sánchez's goal is to arrive at summer 2027 with a favourable CJEU ruling on the amnesty law, a new regional financing model under debate in Congress, and the final tranche of European funds delivered.

Brussels and the economic backdrop

While the political standoff continues, the European Commission has drawn attention for its silence on the corruption scandals affecting Sánchez's circle. Critics contrast this with the treatment of Viktor Orbán, who faced funding freezes and multiple infringement proceedings for less. Brussels has also suggested Spain raise VAT on hospitality from 10% to 21%, a measure the government's economic team can now present as a European requirement rather than a domestic initiative. The hospitality sector has warned the increase would be catastrophic for employment and consumer prices.

The Catalan dimension

Feijóo's speech at the Cercle d'Economia surprised observers with its harshness toward both the independence movement and the Catalan business establishment. He declared he would no longer be fooled and was not there to ask for favours or hand them out. PP sources in Catalonia acknowledge there is nothing to be done with Junts: Puigdemont will never back a PP motion because it would hand ammunition to his rivals ERC and Aliança Catalana. The PP's Catalan interlocutors from the failed 2023 investiture talks say Junts is electorally weak and interested only in Puigdemont's return to Spain and in exploiting the PSOE's scandals for its independence narrative.