Polish far-right gains as ruling coalition wobbles after hospital scandal, poll shows

Poll results

A survey by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, conducted on 2–3 July among over 1,000 respondents, puts Civic Coalition (KO) in first place with 29.1% support, translating to 168 seats in the Sejm. Law and Justice (PiS) follows at 23.2% (136 seats), down from 25.4% in late May. Confederation (Konfederacja) climbs to 13.3% (72 seats), while Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) jumps to 11% (54 seats), up from 8.8%. New Left holds steady at 8.4% (30 seats).

Three parties would fall below the 5% threshold: Polish People's Party (PSL) at 3.9%, Together (Razem) at 2.3%, and Poland 2050 at 1%. The Centrum association registers 0.2%. Undecided voters account for 7.6%, and declared turnout stands at 60.4%.

Scandal backdrop

The poll was taken after the Szpital Południowy scandal erupted. Dawid Kacprzyk, a former KO district councillor and SOR coordinator at the Warsaw hospital, earned 1.6 million złoty last year while still in specialist training. Reports described a "VIP lounge" where KO politicians were allegedly admitted without queuing. Kacprzyk was dismissed, left KO, and resigned his council mandate. On Friday, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski accepted the resignations of two deputy mayors, Renata Kaznowska and Aldona Machnowska-Góra, citing higher expectations in public life.

Expert voices

An interesting poll. KO and PiS are losing within the margin of statistical error, which shows that no matter what happens, both formations have their loyal voters, but there are too few of them to form a government on their own.

PiS has loyal voters, but their electorate is shifting towards both Confederations, which have similar results. The Confederations have become a lesser evil for voters of Jarosław Kaczyński's party. They are strong because of PiS's weakness and the weakness of the big parties, not because of their own potential and fitting into voters' expectations.

A year before the elections it is too early to count who could govern with whom, because today the parties are not in a direct pre-election formation, but they care above all about keeping their own electorate and fighting for the extreme and distinct electorate.

Sowiński added that elections are won in the centre, and whoever has an idea for capturing it will govern.

Coalition arithmetic

Even with KO and PiS both losing support, neither can govern alone. The two far-right groupings together would hold 126 seats, while the current ruling coalition's junior partners (PSL and Poland 2050) would vanish from parliament. The poll suggests a fragmented landscape where any future government would require complex multi-party deals, with the far right holding a strengthened hand.