Futuro Nazionale overtakes League in poll for first time, shaking Italy's right

The overtaking

Futuro Nazionale (FN), the far-right party founded by former army general Roberto Vannacci, has surpassed Matteo Salvini's League in a national poll for the first time. The YouTrend survey for Sky TG24, conducted on 16–17 June, put FN at 5.9%, a gain of 1.5 percentage points since the 29 May wave, while the League slipped 0.1 points to 5.8%. Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) remained the largest party at 27.8%, followed by the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) at 22.2% and the Five Star Movement (M5S) at 12.1%.

Fratelli d'Italia27.8%

Partito Democratico22.2%

Movimento 5 Stelle12.1%

Forza Italia8.2%

Alleanza Verdi Sinistra6.8%

Futuro Nazionale5.9%

Lega5.8%

Azione3.1%

Italia Viva2.1%

Fratelli d'Italia

27.8 %

Partito Democratico

22.2 %

Movimento 5 Stelle

12.1 %

Forza Italia

8.2 %

Alleanza Verdi Sinistra

6.8 %

Futuro Nazionale

5.9 %

Lega

5.8 %

Azione

3.1 %

Italia Viva

2.1 %

Data from the article text

Vannacci's ascent

Vannacci rose to prominence in 2023 with his bestselling anti-woke book "The World the Wrong Way Round". Elected a Member of the European Parliament on a League list in 2024 and later appointed the party's deputy leader, he broke away earlier this year to launch FN. Its founding congress was held in Rome last weekend (14 June). The party's platform centres on "remigration", the mass expulsion of immigrants, including those with legal residence, and close ties to Vladimir Putin's Russia, accompanied by relentless criticism of Giorgia Meloni's government for supporting Ukraine.

“Not Christian.”

The Pope used those words on Tuesday to describe the remigration proposal.

Coalition arithmetic

If FN were to join the centre-right bloc, YouTrend's simulation gives the expanded coalition 45.4% against 46.4% for the centre-left, a narrower loss than if FN runs separately, but still a deficit. Among FdI voters, 56% favour bringing Vannacci into the fold; only 16% of Forza Italia, League and Noi Moderati voters agree. The same poll found 55% of Italians view Meloni's government negatively, 35% positively.

Reactions

FN marked the result with a social-media post: "They told us it was impossible. We started walking. And now we accelerate."

League Senate leader Massimiliano Romeo shrugged off the numbers. "We are a bit tired of looking at Vannacci's polls every day. We are here to work, we are in government, and our concern is to give answers to citizens," he said. FdI deputy Francesco Filini joked, "What overtaking? Hamilton's with his Ferrari?"

Forza Italia minister Paolo Zangrillo was blunt: for him, cohabitation with FN in the centre-right "is not conceivable." The principles and values Vannacci is enunciating, he added, are incompatible with those of FI.

The road to 2027

With the next general election not due until 2027, the snapshot has exposed a fissure on the Italian right. Vannacci claims to represent the "authentic right", implying Meloni has lost ideological purity. The prime minister last week accused him of voting with the left against the government, questioning whether that could be considered genuine right-wing politics. Undecided or abstentionist voters still account for 32.3% of the sample, leaving ample room for further shifts.