European wildfire areas could nearly triple by late century, modeling study finds
A modeling study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research projects that European wildfire areas could expand significantly by the end of the century under ongoing climate warming.
Wildfire activity and burned area in Europe this summer sit above the 20-year average, according to the European Forest Fire Information System. A new modeling study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research indicates that fire activity could expand further across the continent without increased investment in wildfire management, reaching regions where fires have previously occurred only rarely.
Lead author Maik Billing described the conditions behind the projected expansion in fire activity:
Climate change leads to an increase in fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions intensify.
The research team used coupled computer models to compare European vegetation and fire patterns between the 2000–2030 period and projected annual averages for 2070–2100. In a lower-emission scenario holding warming to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the annual burned area is projected to increase by 39 percent compared to current averages. Under higher-emission conditions driven by regional rivalries, burned land across Europe could nearly triple.
