Europe swelters under record heatwave, 18 Italian cities on red alert, thousands of excess deaths feared

Heatwave engulfs the continent

Europe is in the grip of an exceptional heatwave that has pushed temperatures past 40°C in several countries. At least 191 million people were expected to experience highs above 35°C on Sunday, down slightly from the previous day as the intense heat migrates east toward Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Balkans. The German weather service forecast that over 381 million Europeans would face temperatures above 30°C, with the core of the heat spreading across central and eastern regions. In France, the red alert is due to end this evening after an 11-day scorching spell, but 11 million people remain affected.

Human toll and health impacts

French public health agency Santé publique France has registered around 1,000 excess deaths since Wednesday, when the extreme phase began. The daily toll escalated sharply: more than 1,200 deaths were recorded on 24 June, and over 1,400 on both 25 and 26 June, compared with a baseline of 900–1,000 deaths per day in April and May. The increase spans all age groups, though 85% of victims were aged 65 or older. Spain estimates that the heatwave has caused more than 200 deaths in four days. An Economist model covering 854 European cities, combined with temperature-mortality research from Pierre Masselot and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, projects that the three hottest days (24–26 June) could result in up to 12,000 excess deaths across the continent.

In Milan we are more than 10 degrees above the average, in Rome just under 10°C of difference, in Paris there were almost 20 degrees above the historical average, practically double the temperature, both minimum and maximum, something incredible.

Records tumble

Several all-time temperature marks have fallen. Denmark recorded its highest temperature since measurements began in 1874, reaching 37°C at Ødum, north of Aarhus, after an earlier 36.6°C at Odense. Germany saw a peak of 41.5°C in Möckern, in the Drewitz area, and the nation experienced its warmest night on record when the temperature at Kubschütz in Saxony did not drop below 29.4°C. In Italy, Sardinia reported 41°C, while Aosta, at the foot of the Alps, registered 37°C. Bolzano suffered the hottest June night ever measured there, with a minimum of 25.4°C.

Economic costs and disruptions

Consumer association Assoutenti calculates that the exceptional heatwave is costing households up to nearly €600 extra per month, driven by heavier use of air conditioning, rising water consumption, more spending on fresh food and ice cream (already inflated by Middle East conflicts), and increased car use. In Italy, 18 cities are under the health ministry’s highest red alert, including Rome, Milan, Turin, Bologna, and Florence. The heat has forced practical adjustments: the panoramic lift at Genoa’s Porto Antico remains closed for lack of air conditioning, Loredana Bertè cancelled a concert in Bergamo, and Pride marches in Paris and Lyon were called off. Even Milan’s Pride, though held, was postponed to 5 p.m. to avoid the worst sun.

Outlook: a slow retreat

The anticyclone responsible, nicknamed Caronte, will maintain its grip through early next week. Sunday 28 June is expected to bring 40°C highs to northern Italy and Tuscany, with tropical nights persisting. A modest temperature drop may begin on Monday, but the most significant change is forecast for Wednesday 1 July, when cooler air from northern Europe could lower the mercury by 6–8°C, accompanied by severe thunderstorms in the Alps and northern regions. The Azores High could return by the following weekend, bringing more typical summer conditions.