European heatwave claims 1,300 lives in a week, records shatter from Germany to Poland before a stormy break

Record-smashing temperatures across the continent

An extraordinary heat dome has been gripping Europe, pushing temperatures well past 40 °C in multiple countries and setting new national records. Germany recorded a provisional high of 41.7 °C at Coschen in eastern Brandenburg on Sunday, surpassing the 41.5 °C registered at Drewitz the previous day. Poland shattered a record that had stood since 1921, with Słubice reaching 40.5 °C. Hungary hit 40.7 °C at Budakalász, and the Czech Republic recorded 41.9 °C at Doksany, where the hydrometeorological institute said temperatures were still climbing. Slovakia and Denmark also joined the list, with Mužla at 39.3 °C and Denmark logging 36.6 °C, its highest since records began in 1874.

Human toll mounts across the south

Italy is counting its dead. A 64-year-old worker and an 84-year-old priest died from suspected heatstroke in the Padua area, while two elderly people were confirmed dead in Genoa. A 75-year-old man collapsed while jogging at Bari’s Palese airport and could not be revived. In Sardinia, another 75-year-old died under a beach umbrella at Cala Liberotto. Emergency rooms are absorbing a 15 % increase in admissions, but the Italian society of emergency-urgency medicine says the system is holding.

Since 21 June, more than 1,300 excess deaths linked to high temperatures have been recorded in Europe.

France's public-health agency reported roughly 1,000 excess deaths between 24 and 27 June compared with the seasonal average, two thirds of them among over-65s in private homes. The Île-de-France region around Paris was hit hardest. Emergency physician and MP Philippe Juvin warned that the final toll is likely to rise as more bodies are discovered.

It is still too early for a definitive assessment, but epidemiologically it is realistic to estimate that between June and July the heat could cause several thousand, up to more than ten thousand, premature deaths in Europe, with a prudent range between 5,000 and 15,000.

Fires, mudslides and the paradox of extreme rainfall

After 12 days of record-breaking heat, sudden downpours swept across northern Italy, triggering a mudslide in several cities. In Germany, a forest fire broke out at Gohrischheide on land contaminated with Second World War munitions, forcing firefighters to suspend operations temporarily near Traisen at a former ammunition disposal site. The sharp contrast between the super-heated land surface and incoming cooler air is also expected to generate severe thunderstorms with hail and strong gusts, especially in Alpine and pre-Alpine regions and across the Po Plain.

When the heat dome cracks

Relief is starting to flow from the north. Parisians woke Monday to 14 °C and a daytime high of just 27 °C, ending an 11-day stretch of 40 °C peaks. By Thursday 2 July, cooler Atlantic currents should drop Italian temperatures back to seasonal norms, a pause that forecasters at iLMeteo.it and 3bmeteo.com describe as temporary. Once the fresher air retreats, the African anticyclone is expected to return, keeping July and August above the long-term average.

There is enormous energy in play. The intense heat has increased evaporation from our seas, so there is more humidity, and at high altitude cold-air pockets that manage to wedge themselves into the anticyclonic dome, producing cloudbursts. After that, the heat returns.

A warming baseline makes the unthinkable routine

Meteorologists stress that the current heatwave is riding on a climate baseline already elevated by anthropogenic CO₂. Gussoni notes that an anomaly of this scale “would not have been physically possible just twenty years ago.” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pointed out that Europe is warming at twice the global average, with 150 million people experiencing extreme heat stress at the peak of this event. The Italian health ministry placed 25 cities under a level-3 red alert on Tuesday, the highest emergency tier, warning of health risks even for fit and active adults.