European states tighten security and civil defence following Russian hybrid attacks

Surge in sabotage and border incursions

Over the past six weeks, European authorities have recorded a sequence of sabotage incidents, airspace incursions, and drone strikes spanning five NATO member states and neighbouring frontier regions. In early August, an explosive-laden drone struck a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in Germany, failing to detonate due to a faulty fuse. German interior and defence officials later attributed the incident to Russian operations, an allegation Moscow denies. In late August, an arson attack at the WB Electronics plant in Skarzysko-Kamienna caused at least four million euros in damages, which Polish prosecutors are investigating as foreign-backed terrorism. On 9 September, a drone strike on the Ukraine-Moldova border killed two people. Four days later, another drone hit a passenger train carrying 206 people between Kyiv and Warsaw, two kilometres from the Polish border, following the passage of a diplomatic delegation that included former British prime minister Boris Johnson and former CIA director David Petraeus.

Government readiness and civil defence measures

In response to the sequence of incidents, Western European administrations have introduced civilian readiness plans and strengthened infrastructure protection. French President Emmanuel Macron met party leaders at the Elysee to commission a protection plan for critical infrastructure and sensitive defence manufacturing sites.

In recent weeks, the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and France has intensified.

In the United Kingdom, civil preparedness advisories urged households to store three days of drinking water and non-perishable canned food. In Spain, Director of National Security General Loreto Gutierrez Hurtado confirmed the drafting of a revised National Security Strategy to address hybrid warfare tactics. Meanwhile, the Federal Council of Switzerland approved its Security Policy Strategy 2026, focusing on economic resilience, civil protection, and armed defence capabilities.

Eastern flank alerts

Air raid warnings and heightened military patrols have increased across Poland and the Baltic states. In eastern Poland, security alerts prompted pedestrian sheltering, basement evacuations for schoolchildren, and the temporary grounding of air traffic at Lublin and Rzeszow airports three times in three days. In Lithuania, authorities distributed evacuation guidance to residents of Vilnius, while Italian Eurofighter jets deployed on NATO air policing duties intercepted a Russian drone over Lithuanian territory on 15 September. The previous day, a Russian naval corvette discharged two flares toward a Danish military helicopter operating in international airspace over the Baltic Sea. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced intensified border security, noting that intelligence services reported plans for Moscow to stage strikes on NATO territory disguised as accidental hits.

We know that Putin is plotting something.

Strategic assessments

Assessments from the Institute for the Study of War indicate that potential Kremlin pressure points focus on smaller Baltic members rather than larger military forces in Finland or Poland. Identified vulnerable sectors include the Saatse corridor in Estonia, the Dieveniskes salient in Lithuania, the village of Spreki in Latvia, and uninhabited Baltic islands. Analysts evaluate that localized incursions or missile strikes in these zones could be calculated to test NATO resolve regarding collective defence commitments under Article 5. Prior to the recent escalation, CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow to deliver direct warnings against hostile actions directed at NATO territory.