EU population to peak at 453 million in 2029 before entering sustained decline, leaving one in three over 65 by 2050

The population of the European Union is on the verge of a historic turning point, according to a report published on 14 July 2026 by the Joint Research Centre, an institute attached to the European Commission. At 450.6 million inhabitants on 1 January 2025, the bloc is forecast to reach its all-time peak of 453.3 million around 2029, before beginning a slow but irreversible decline that will reshape the continent's economy, labour markets, and welfare systems.

The peak and the fall

After 2029, the EU's population trajectory turns downward. The report projects 445 million inhabitants by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100, a level last seen in the second half of the 1970s. The contraction has no modern peacetime precedent. The median age is already 44.9 years in 2025, but country-level figures expose deep divides: Ireland sits at 36.9 years while Italy confronts a median of 49.1 years. By 2100 the EU-wide median is expected to reach 51.5 years.

Longer lives, fewer births

Europeans are living longer than ever. Life expectancy hit 81.5 years in 2024, with women reaching 84.1 years and men 78.9 years. By 2100 those figures could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men. A child born in the EU in 2023 can already expect 75.3 years of life without serious illness. At the same time, fertility has been declining since the mid-1960s and stood at 1.34 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement threshold of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable absent immigration.

A structural shift in society

The age structure is transforming rapidly. Around one in five EU residents is 65 or older today; by 2050 that share will reach nearly one in three. The report warns of intensifying intergenerational tensions: pension systems face severe strain, demand for elder care is rising, and housing is becoming less accessible for younger generations who also encounter unprecedented obstacles to entering the labour market and starting families.

Labour-market strains and hidden capacity

Nearly 20% of working-age people are outside the labour force. The employment gap between women and men remains at 10 percentage points, and 8 million young people are neither employed, in education, nor in training. The Commission argues that raising the employment rate of women and youth, improving productivity, and reducing unemployment will be essential to offset the shrinking working-age population.

We are living longer and healthier than ever, one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is transforming our societies, our economies and our labour markets, and we must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity.

The silver economy and the immigration factor

Immigration plays a growing role by partially compensating for population decline but does not significantly alter the EU's demographic trajectory, the report notes. The shift is also creating new markets around the "silver economy", with products and services aimed at older people, particularly in health and technology. The EU acknowledges the challenge is not about reversing the trend but about adapting public policy to the impact on growth potential, labour markets, health systems, housing, and public finances.

The window for adjustment is short. The demographic peak in 2029 marks the moment a continent designed its welfare model around a steadily growing, relatively young population must confront a new arithmetic of fewer workers supporting more retirees.