EU warns of high winter energy prices and weighs one-year delay on methane import rules

Winter price outlook and consumption targets

European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned member states at an informal energy ministers meeting in Dublin that Europe faces very high energy prices during the upcoming winter season. While the European Commission does not anticipate physical supply shortages of gas or oil, elevated commodity costs threaten household budgets and industrial competitiveness across the bloc. In letters sent to the 27 national energy ministers, Jorgensen urged governments to adopt measures to curb gas and electricity consumption, including lowering heating temperatures in public buildings and turning off non-essential public lighting. Brussels calculates that European Union countries have incurred over 100 billion euros in extra energy costs since the escalation of Middle East tensions without receiving additional volumes of oil or gas. Jorgensen described the social consequences of the price environment during press briefings in Dublin.

In a normal winter, close to 50 million people in Europe are not able to properly heat their homes. This winter could be even worse. We therefore take the situation very seriously, without even mentioning our industry, which is also under pressure.

Proposal to delay methane import rules

To ease pressure on commodity markets and prevent trade friction, the European Commission is assessing legal options to postpone the methane regulation rules for hydrocarbon imports by one year. The legislation, in force since 2024, originally required European importers of gas, oil, and coal to verify that foreign suppliers adhere to equivalent methane monitoring standards starting 1 January 2027. French President Emmanuel Macron requested pushing the enforcement date back to 2028, a proposal that the Commission is preparing to submit to member states and the European Parliament. Fossil-fuel producing nations, led by the United States, opposed the import standards as a regulatory burden that could restrict transatlantic energy shipments. While environmental organizations criticized the proposed delay as an erosion of EU climate policy, EU officials maintained that the postponement aims to remove supply uncertainties before winter.

Gas storage levels across the bloc

Gas storage facilities across the European Union stand at approximately 70% capacity according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. This aggregate reserve level is 12% lower than the volume recorded during the same period in 2025, largely because elevated spot prices discouraged operators in countries like Germany from refilling storage earlier in the season. Storage performance varies significantly across individual member states, with Italy reaching 86.3% capacity as it approaches its mandatory 90% filling target ahead of the heating period. European officials stated that overall winter preparedness remains stronger than in late 2021 when Russian supplies were curtailed, though lower collective storage leaves the continent sensitive to cold weather.

Industrial impact and sovereign debt reactions

High energy costs continue to feed through into industrial production prices, creating friction within domestic manufacturing sectors across southern Europe. In Italy, national industrial producer prices increased by 2.4% month-on-month in August 2026 and 10.9% year-on-year, propelled by a 34.5% annual jump in energy costs. Excluding the energy component, Italian manufacturing producer prices rose by a more moderate 3.2% year-on-year, supported by steady export demand and revenue growth. Italian Minister of Enterprises Adolfo Urso called for a fundamental overhaul of the EU Emissions Trading System, arguing that existing carbon market rules penalize European manufacturers. Concurrently, broader financial pressures pushed the 10-year Italian BTP-Bund spread to 100 basis points, with 10-year Italian bond yields reaching 4.6% as US Treasury yields touched 5.25%.