Spain braces for EU court ruling on Catalan amnesty law as Puigdemont and Junqueras await key decision

The ruling and its immediate stakes

On Thursday 16 July, the Court of Justice of the European Union (TJUE) in Luxembourg will issue its first ruling on Spain's 2024 amnesty law. The court must address prejudicial questions raised by Spain's Court of Auditors and the National Court on whether the expenses of the Catalan independence process (procés) posed a risk to EU financial interests, and on the legal treatment of members of the Committees for the Defence of the Republic (CDR). The ruling is expected to follow the opinion of the EU Advocate General, who concluded last year that the law did not contravene European law on terrorism grounds and did not clash with EU financial interests. EU sources cited by ABC note it would be highly unusual for the court to contradict the Advocate General.

The decision carries direct consequences for Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled Spain in late 2017 and remains under an active arrest warrant from the Supreme Court. The court has refused to apply the amnesty to the embezzlement charge against him. For Oriol Junqueras, the ERC leader, a favourable ruling could end his disqualification from holding public office, clearing him to stand as a candidate in the next Catalan elections.

Political reactions in Madrid and Barcelona

The Popular Party (PP), through its national spokesman Borja Sémper, stated on Monday that it will "respect and trust" the ruling "whatever its direction." Sémper reiterated the party's political opposition to the law, calling it "a tool pulled out of a hat by President Sánchez to secure an investiture" after having previously said the measure had "no place." He added: "We will abide by it as we do with all judicial rulings. It goes without saying."

Whatever the direction of the ruling, we will abide by it as we always do with all judicial rulings. Politicians get all grand when they say 'I abide by it.' Well, it would be the least you could do not to abide by it.

The PP also filed an appeal against the law before the Constitutional Court, which has upheld the amnesty's application and is now waiting for the TJUE ruling before resolving the individual appeals of those convicted. Lluïsa Moret, vice-first secretary and spokeswoman of the PSC, called on PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo to withdraw those appeals: "Not long ago he said he wanted to turn the page on Catalonia: well, let him withdraw these appeals that are still alive."

Catalan president Salvador Illa, speaking at a forum in Madrid, said he expects the ruling to be "clear and forceful" and urged that the amnesty "be applied with diligence and without further delay" if the court backs it. He noted that the law has already been applied to more than 300 people and has received over 20 favourable rulings from the Constitutional Court. Illa also pointed to the political effect: "One of the criticisms of the law was that it would fuel independence support. The opposite has happened: for the first time in 40 years there is no pro-independence or nationalist majority in the Catalan Parliament."

ERC optimism and Junts caution

Elisenda Alamany, secretary general of ERC, said her party is "optimistic" and believes the ruling will be favourable. "We hope that this week we can see some light, that the TJUE proves us right and exposes a state that should be ashamed of its democratic deficits," she said. Alamany also denounced what she called "a judicial boycott of democracy" in Spain and warned that applying the ruling "will not be easy" and "is a fight that will have to be maintained."

We hope that this week we can see some light, that the TJUE proves us right and exposes a state that should be ashamed of its democratic deficits.

Oriol Junqueras will travel to Madrid on Thursday and give a conference on Friday morning where he is expected to give a fuller assessment of the ruling and, if it goes as ERC hopes, to call for the law's "immediate" application and reaffirm his intention to run in the next Catalan elections in 2028.

Junts, by contrast, is keeping its distance. Party vice-president and spokesman Josep Rius declined to assess the possible ruling until the full text is known. "Spanish justice is always entirely unpredictable," he said. The party has followed the line set by Puigdemont, who has reduced his public exposure in recent months while awaiting this first judicial step.

The political landscape beyond the courtroom

Even a favourable ruling will not mean an immediate return for Puigdemont. La Razón reports that Junts fears a negative move from the Supreme Court, and the Constitutional Court is not expected to rule until October. The legal path remains multi-layered: after the TJUE, the Constitutional Court must resolve the appeals, and then the Supreme Court must decide whether to comply.

Polls published by the Catalan press paint a difficult picture for Junts. In a general election the party could lose half its representation, falling from seven to four deputies. In a regional election it would also shed half its seats, dropping to fourth place with only 18 deputies. The Barcelona Municipal Barometer published last Friday relegates Junts to seventh place. Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, has overtaken Junts in the latest CEO survey, placing third in voting intention. Alamany urged Junts "not to punish the country and force it to give up 5,000 million euros more out of pure electoral panic over Aliança Catalana."

We ask Junts not to punish the country and force it to give up 5,000 million euros more out of pure electoral panic over Aliança Catalana.

For Puigdemont, the TJUE ruling has become a lifeline. Junts is convinced that his return would be a political boost, but the electoral headwinds are strong. ERC, meanwhile, sees an opportunity: polls show Oriol Junqueras gaining ground, fishing in Junts's electorate and recovering votes previously lost to the PSC.