Eritrean troops reported inside Ethiopia's Tigray as drones strike them near Adigrat

Eritrean troops reported inside Tigray

ACLED, the US-based conflict monitor, said Eritrean soldiers crossed into Ethiopia on Wednesday and advanced dozens of kilometres into Tigray before withdrawing under heavy drone strikes. Witnesses saw trucks carrying Eritrean troops through Adigrat, a town about 25 km (15 miles) inside Ethiopia. A resident told BBC Africa they had seen about forty trucks carrying soldiers heading south, and another Adigrat resident heard three explosions overnight north of the city. These sightings were the first confirmation of Eritrean forces in northern Ethiopia since fighting broke out last month between Ethiopia's military and a rebel alliance. Researchers at the Critical Threats Project consider several online images and videos of Eritrean troops in Tigray to be authentic.

Strikes and the withdrawal

The strikes are believed to have been carried out by Ethiopia's military on Wednesday and Thursday, targeting Eritrean military vehicles near Adigrat as they pulled back from their positions. A diplomat and a conflict expert in contact with both sides said they had reports of Eritreans moving north under heavy bombardment by Ethiopian drones. It was not clear whether the Eritreans were leaving Ethiopia or redeploying within the country. A senior Ethiopian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Eritrea had one mechanized division and three infantry divisions in Tigray, each consisting of about 1,500 soldiers. Spokespeople for Ethiopia's government, military and prime minister's office did not respond to requests for comment.

Diplomatic fallout

Eritrea's information minister Yemane Gebremeskel called reports of an incursion part of an Ethiopian plan to justify a war of aggression against its smaller neighbour, and he did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday. On Thursday, Ethiopia's foreign minister Gedion Timothewos met UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed. According to the foreign affairs ministry's post on X, Ethiopia demanded the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces from its territory and reaffirmed its right to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity under international law. The two countries severed diplomatic ties last week over Addis Ababa's allegations that Asmara was supporting the rebels. Eritrea has repeatedly denied the accusation.

Tigray fighting since September

Courrier International reports that on 20 September a group of Ethiopian rebel movements, including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), announced an anti-government alliance. Hostilities began on 23 September with a joint assault by TPLF and AFNM forces along the Tigray border with Eritrea. After nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, federal forces entered the Tigrayan capital Mekelle as rebel forces withdrew, according to Al Jazeera, which says the fighting has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire. La Libre dates the federal recapture of Mekelle to 2 October. Rebel leader Debretsion Gebremichael pledged to keep fighting.

We will confront the enemy on our terms and where we choose.

Red Sea access and regional stakes

SRF correspondent Fabian Urech writes that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is again demanding his own access to the Red Sea, a demand that has heightened tensions with Eritrea. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent. Egypt, according to Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute, views the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and any Ethiopian move toward the Red Sea as a strategic threat. Ethiopia accuses Egypt and Sudan of backing the TPLF, both deny it, and the Guardian reports that the UAE has increased its support for Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is seeking a sea outlet; Eritrea sees this as an existential threat.

The 2020 to 2022 war, in which Ethiopia and Eritrea fought together against the TPLF, killed an estimated several hundred thousand people, with the Guardian citing estimates of as many as 600,000 deaths.