UN warns of potentially strong El Niño later this year, urges world to brace for extreme weather and heat records

Forecast and probabilities

The World Meteorological Organization issued its latest update on Tuesday, stating an 80% chance of El Niño conditions developing between June and August 2026, and a probability “near or above 90%” that the event will persist until at least November. The U.S. NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch and says there’s a 96% chance of it peaking between December and February. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have been rising since late April and are approaching the El Niño threshold, according to observations used by the WMO. Most forecast models indicate the event will be “at least moderate — and possibly strong,” with some projections warning it could be the strongest in two decades.

El Niño will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speed.

Global impacts

El Niño, a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, typically shifts global weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall to the southern United States, parts of South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. At the same time, it often triggers drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and South Asia, and can fuel more hurricanes in the Pacific. The WMO warns that the combination of these effects could strain food and water supplies, increase the spread of vector-borne diseases, and worsen heatwaves on land and at sea. Cash crops like cocoa could face unusually poor harvests. Food prices, already under pressure from global conflicts including the US-Israel war on Iran, may rise further. The agency’s Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said communities already struggling “will be pushed farther beyond their limits.”

Climate change and temperature records

The WMO forecasts above-average temperatures for nearly all regions in the June-to-August period. The last El Niño, in 2023–2024, contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. With global average temperatures already about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels due to greenhouse gas emissions, even a moderate El Niño could push global temperatures to new extremes and amplify the natural phenomenon’s effects. The WMO says that while climate change has not been shown to alter the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, the warmer starting point makes their consequences more severe. Climatologist Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office said there are reasons to believe “the phenomenon will manifest with great intensity and that temperature records could be broken.” These conditions could heighten the risk of wildfires, as noted by researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network.

We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean.

Preparations and calls for action

Anticipating heightened wildfire risks, the European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft in high-risk areas across Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal. The WMO urges governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water management to use the lead time for planning rather than emergency response. Secretary-General Guterres called the forecast an “urgent climate warning” and stressed that the only effective response is “climate action equal to the crisis,” including ending fossil fuel dependency, accelerating renewables, and protecting the most vulnerable with early warning systems.