Liberation of Cocoa Prices Threatens Hundreds of Thousands of Tons of Raw Material Piling Up in Ivory Coast Warehouses

Ivory Coast, the world leader in cocoa production, is facing a serious market crisis due to its government's pricing policy. The established minimum price for local producers, set too high, has made contracts for the supply of raw material uncompetitive on the global market. As a result, hundreds of thousands of tons of beans are piling up in port warehouses, mainly in Abidjan. According to forecasts by the Reuters agency, unsold stocks could rise to around 700,000 tons, highlighting the scale of the oversupply problem. For decades, Ivory Coast has been the world's largest producer of cocoa, accounting for about 40% of global supply. This market, however, is highly volatile and susceptible to climatic and political fluctuations, as well as speculation on commodity exchanges such as New York's ICE or London's Liffe. Many producing countries, often developing economies, try to protect their farmers' incomes through price interventions, which sometimes leads to market disruptions. This situation has led to a drastic drop in futures prices. Compared to record levels a year ago, exchange quotations have fallen by about 70%. This sharp decline reflects both reduced demand from processors and the huge supply of unsold raw material.„If the current situation persists, unsold cocoa stocks at the port of Abidjan could rise to around 700,000 tonnes.” — Reuters Paradoxically, consumers in Europe and North America are not feeling the benefits of the collapse in raw material prices. Chocolate prices in stores remain high or are even rising; Italian media report increases of up to 20%. This discrepancy is explained by the lag in passing raw material price changes to final products, higher costs of other ingredients (such as sugar and milk), and retail margins. Decline in cocoa futures prices (ICE) over the past year: 2025-02: 8200, 2025-08: 4500, 2026-02: 2500 The government in Abidjan is working to resolve the impasse. The Minister of Agriculture, Kobenan Adjourmani, announced that the price for this year's smaller crop (the so-called mid-crop) will be announced by the end of February. Negotiations with international buyers are ongoing, and their outcome could determine the fate of the gigantic stocks. Experts point out that a prolonged crisis could hit the country's economy, for which cocoa exports are a pillar, and the incomes of hundreds of thousands of local growers, despite the theoretically high minimum price.