Netherlands will miss winter gas storage targets as reserves sit at 44 percent

Storage targets out of reach

Dutch gas grid operator Gasunie announced that the Netherlands will fail to meet its target for filling underground gas storage facilities before the upcoming winter. The government objective aimed to store 115 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas by 1 November, which represents nearly half of annual Dutch consumption. Even the lower European Union standard of 70% capacity (107 TWh) is unlikely to be reached before colder weather begins.

As of 24 August, national underground gas reserves stood at approximately 44% capacity. This marks a continued downward trend over recent years, compared with 63% on the same date in 2025, 88% in 2024, and 94% in 2023. A Gasunie spokesperson stated that reaching the original 80% domestic filling threshold is no longer feasible, even if all available liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments were routed to Dutch ports.

Market dynamics remove storage incentives

In typical years, commercial energy suppliers buy cheaper natural gas during summer to inject into depleted underground fields, later withdrawing it to meet winter customer contracts or sell at higher seasonal rates. This year, military conflict in the Persian Gulf and fighting involving Iran disrupted regional LNG supply from producers such as Qatar.

The resulting international supply tightness drove summer spot prices up to the same level as upcoming winter futures contracts. Because gas in December costs roughly the same as fuel bought in August, commercial suppliers face financial losses if they incur additional storage fees. Lucia van Geuns, strategic energy adviser at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, noted that private operators stepped back from purchases, leaving storage levels expected to reach only around 60% by winter, a low not seen since 2013.

State procurement and supply security

To counter the withdrawal of commercial buyers, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate instructed state-owned company Energie Beheer Nederland (EBN) in April to purchase gas directly. EBN stated that it is on track to store 80 TWh of gas. Gasunie confirmed that EBN has executed its mandate, but the total replenishment rate across the sector remains insufficient to reach official targets based on the coldest winter of the last 30 years.

While Gasunie anticipates no physical shortages during a normal winter, the deficit leaves the country exposed if severe cold or technical outages hit pipelines and terminals.

Concretely, this situation means that without additional policy, the Netherlands is insufficiently prepared for a scenario of one of these coldest winters.

Import reliance and emergency rules

Since the shutdown of the Groningen gas field and reductions in Russian pipeline flows, the Netherlands depends on seaborne LNG arriving at the Port of Rotterdam and pipeline supplies from Norway. Norway supplied 25% of Dutch gas in 2024 and recently reaffirmed plans to continue Arctic drilling. However, European buyers face intense competition from Asian markets for available LNG cargoes.

If extreme cold or supply disruptions cause an actual shortage, the national Gas Crisis Plan establishes legal priorities. Residential households, schools, and hospitals maintain guaranteed supply, while industrial consumers face mandatory power cuts and disconnections.