Global forced displacement falls for the first time in a decade, but UNHCR warns returns are often unsafe

A decade-long trend reverses

For the first time in more than ten years, the number of people forcibly displaced by war, violence and persecution has fallen. The UNHCR's annual Global Trends report, released in Geneva on Thursday, puts the figure at 117.8 million by the end of 2025 — roughly one in 70 people worldwide. That represents a decline of about 4% from the previous year, or 5.4 million fewer displaced individuals than at the close of 2024.

The drop is not driven by a slowdown in new flight. Instead, it reflects a surge in returns: 14.7 million people moved back to their home regions in 2025, including 10.3 million internally displaced persons. That is 50% more returnees than in 2024 and the second-highest annual total since UNHCR began tracking returns 60 years ago.

Where the returnees came from

More than 90% of those who went back originated from just three countries. Afghanistan accounted for 1.9 million returnees, Syria for 1.3 million, and Sudan for 651,500. The Syrian numbers are linked to the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, which encouraged many Syrians to go home. Afghan returns were driven largely by eroding protection in neighbouring states — Pakistan and Iran forced hundreds of thousands of Afghans, some of whom had lived abroad for years, to leave in 2025. Sudanese returnees moved to areas where the fighting in the country's civil war had subsided.

Many of these return movements did not take place under safe and stable conditions, but under various forms of pressure, to countries where insecurity persists, infrastructure is damaged, and access to basic services and economic opportunities remains severely limited.

The composition of displacement

Of the 117.8 million displaced people, 68.6 million are internally displaced within their own countries. Another 28.5 million are refugees under the UNHCR mandate. Roughly 9 million are asylum seekers awaiting a decision on their claim, 7.2 million are people in need of international protection, and 6 million are Palestinian refugees under UNRWA's mandate. The number of pending asylum applications rose by 645,300 to nearly 9 million, while the estimated stateless population grew by 3% to 4.5 million.

Almost three-quarters of all refugees come from seven countries: Venezuela (6.4 million), Palestine (6 million), Ukraine (5.2 million), Syria (4.9 million), Afghanistan (3.7 million), Sudan (2.8 million) and South Sudan (2.4 million).

Host countries and the Lebanon crisis

More than one-third of the world's refugees live in just seven host countries. Colombia leads with 2.8 million, followed by Germany (2.7 million), Turkey (2.4 million), Uganda (1.9 million), Iran (1.7 million), Chad (1.5 million) and Pakistan (1.3 million). Some 65% of refugees and others in need of international protection reside in countries neighbouring their origin.

The report's cautiously positive headline figure is overshadowed by a fast-growing crisis in Lebanon. Since the US-Israel war on Iran began in late March 2026, Israeli attacks have forcibly displaced more than one million people from Lebanon, with a further 3.2 million internally displaced inside Iran.

Integration as the alternative

Barham Salih, the new UN High Commissioner for Refugees, described the small decline as good news but immediately qualified it. He noted that only once in the past 60 years had more people returned home than in 2025, yet much of that movement was not voluntary. Forced returns to unsafe countries, he warned, can quickly trigger the next wave of flight.

Inclusion is not a burden, it is a gain.

Salih argued that refugees need more educational and integration opportunities so they can build new lives and contribute to the economy and social systems of host countries. The UNHCR's top priority, he said, remains peace in refugees' home countries — but when that is not achievable, integration is the necessary fallback.

New displacement continues

Even as returns surged, 5.4 million people fled their homes for other countries in 2025. The largest outflows came from Sudan (952,700), Ukraine (788,100) and Venezuela (455,300). The report makes clear that the global displacement picture remains one of churn: millions going back under pressure while millions more continue to flee active conflicts.